Novo Nordisk Loses Weight-Loss Lead as Lilly Gains Ground

Analysts tracking the global obesity-drug market suggest Novo Nordisk is navigating a materially more competitive phase after its early leadership in GLP-1 treatments helped transform Wegovy into a blockbuster and lifted the company to become Europe's most valuable listed firm. That initial advantage has eroded as Eli Lilly's rival drug Zepbound delivered stronger weight-loss results in a head-to-head study and is projected by Bloomberg-compiled consensus estimates to surpass Wegovy sales in 2025. At the same time, Novo has faced pressure from lower-priced copycat GLP-1 products, prompting a cut to its earnings outlook earlier this year and a renewed focus on pricing discipline and cost controls under newly appointed chief executive Mike Doustdar.Analysts note that the copycat issue emerged after Novo underestimated demand and struggled with supply constraints, opening the door for US compounding pharmacies to sell discounted alternatives while shortages persisted. Although the Food and Drug Administration declared the semaglutide shortage over in February 2025 and barred new compounded versions after May, Novo estimates more than one million US patients may still be using modified copycat formulations that exploit regulatory loopholes. In response, the company has adjusted its go-to-market strategy, including a brief partnership with Hims & Hers Health and the launch of its direct-to-patient NovoCare platform, which offers discounted pricing for uninsured or cash-paying customers and was expanded with additional price cuts announced in November through partners such as WeightWatchers.Looking ahead, observers see Novo's pipeline and policy developments as potential stabilizers rather than immediate cures. The company is developing a higher-dose Wegovy injection and has secured FDA approval for an oral version of Wegovy, which it expects to launch in the US in January 2026, possibly giving it a short lead before Eli Lilly's oral obesity pill, which could be approved by March. Novo has also agreed with the Trump administration to lower prices for Medicare and Medicaid patients and expand eligibility for weight-loss coverage, a move management has warned could weigh on global sales growth next year, even as the deal offers offsets such as a fast-tracked FDA review for higher-dose Wegovy and a three-year exemption from US pharma import tariffs.