Lloyds share price dips as profits beat forecasts but bank holds guidance

Lloyds shares edged down on Thursday despite the bank reporting better-than-expected profits, as it opted to leave its full-year guidance unchanged.Share price was down by 0.41% at 9:21 am. Lloyds shares have already climbed 40% year-to-date, meaning investors were likely looking for an exceptionally strong half-year performance to justify further gains.Lloyds Banking Group reported a 5% rise in statutory profit before tax for the first half of 2025, outperforming analysts’ expectations despite a challenging economic backdrop and heightened regulatory risks.The British lender posted a profit of £3.5 billion ($4.75 billion) for the six months ended June 30, just above the £3.2 billion average forecast by analysts. The increase came amid a 6% rise in total income to £9.4 billion, supported by fleet growth and higher rental values in the motor finance business.Lloyds Banking Group’s underlying performance looks strong, as impairments continue to fuel better-than-projected profits, default rates remain low, and borrowers remain resilient, according to Hargreaves Lansdown’s Matt Britzman.“The [market] reaction might be a little muted, though, given the lack of guidance upgrade off the back of a good set of numbers,” he wrote in a note.Lloyds acknowledges deteriorating outlook despite upbeat numbers Shareholders will receive an interim dividend of 1.22 pence per share, amounting to £731 million—a 15% increase from the prior year. Lloyds CEO Charlie Nunn attributed the solid performance to a combination of income growth, cost discipline, and robust asset quality.“We have shown sustained strength in our financial performance in the first half of 2025,” Nunn said. “This has driven strong capital generation and increased shareholder distributions.”Despite the upbeat numbers, the lender acknowledged a deteriorating economic outlook. It took an impairment charge of £442 million, up from £101 million a year earlier, citing defaults among a small number of companies in one unnamed sector. Lloyds said the provisioning reflected expectations of a higher unemployment peak, although improved house price forecasts partially offset this.Legal threat from motor finance case looms largeThe bank’s quarterly results may be overshadowed by a pending UK Supreme Court ruling in a landmark motor finance case. The ruling, expected soon, could have wide-ranging consequences for Lloyds and other major lenders, with analysts warning of potential industry-wide costs of up to £30 billion.The case concerns whether banks failed to properly disclose commissions on past car finance deals, an issue that has prompted scrutiny from regulators and class-action lawsuits. Lloyds is among the most exposed to a negative ruling, having already set aside £1.2 billion for potential liabilities. However, the bank said it made no additional provisions in this quarter, a decision that may reflect confidence in the outcome.Britzman noted that the lack of further provisioning could be interpreted as a vote of confidence by management.Outlook hinges on macroeconomic stability as Lloyds holds steady on guidanceLloyds maintained its full-year performance targets, underscoring management’s belief in the bank’s operational resilience. It remains the UK’s largest mortgage lender, a position it has defended successfully even amid rising interest rates, tighter credit conditions, and regulatory scrutiny.Analysts say the broader macroeconomic environment will likely be the key determinant of Lloyds’ future share price performance, as early signs of economic strain emerge in the UK.“Our experts suggest that future results are strongly linked to the British economy, so if the British economy does well, Lloyds should do well,” said Max Harper, Analyst at Third Bridge.“The Bank of England’s current stable interest rate policy is unlikely to significantly impact Lloyds’ dynamic hedging strategy, the primary risk for the bank is stagflation,” he said. “A combination of a slowing economy and persistently high inflation would create a double-edged sword effect, simultaneously reducing appetite for new lending while interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation could turn the bank’s hedge into a source of financial loss.”The post Lloyds share price dips as profits beat forecasts but bank holds guidance appeared first on Invezz