"Market Review" Hang Seng Index rises on Christmas Eve half-day market HSBC rises for six consecutive days SMIC performs well

On the eve of the Christmas holiday, the Hong Kong stock market today (24th) had only a half-day session, with the Hang Seng Index fluctuating positively. The market digested the U.S. third-quarter GDP annualized growth rate of 4.3%, which exceeded expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 0.2% overnight, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.6%. At the time of writing, the yield on U.S. 2-year bonds rose to 3.53%, while the yield on U.S. 10-year bonds fell to 4.159%, and the U.S. dollar index dropped to 97.91. Dow futures were down 40 points or 0.08%, and Nasdaq futures were down 22 points or 0.06%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 9 points or 0.24% to close at 3,929 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.3%. The total transaction amount in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.15 trillion yuan.

The Hong Kong stock market today (24th) had only a half-day session, with the Hang Seng Index opening 5 points higher and the increase at one point expanding to 116 points, reaching a high of 25,890 points. However, the upward trend later reversed, closing at 25,818 points, up 44 points or 0.17%; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose slightly by 1 point, closing at 8,915 points; the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 10 points or 0.19%, closing at 5,499 points. The total market turnover was 92.524 billion yuan. The total turnover of northbound trading was 45.799 billion yuan, while southbound funds had a net outflow of 1.315 billion yuan today (with a net inflow of 611 million yuan the previous day). Tech stocks performed mixed, with Tencent (00700.HK) rising by 0.2%. Alibaba-W (09988.HK) fell by 0.8%, reportedly due to Alibaba's push for "Qianwen Zhixue" to enhance AI education. HSBC Holdings (00005.HK) rose 1.2% throughout the day, closing at 123.8 HKD, repeatedly setting a historical closing high after dividend payment, marking six consecutive trading days of increase (a total increase of 6.5%).

The Hong Kong stock market will be closed tomorrow and the day after for the Christmas holiday and the first Sunday after Christmas. The Hang Seng Index had only two and a half trading days this week, with a total increase of 128 points or 0.5% for the week, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 13 points or less than 0.2%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 20 points or 0.4% for the week.

【HSBC's six consecutive rises, SMIC has support】

The U.S. has extended the deadline for imposing tariffs on Chinese chips to June 2027, with specific tax rates to be determined at least one month in advance. Additionally, it was reported that SMIC (00981.HK) has implemented price increases on some production capacities, with an increase of about 10%, and its stock price rose by 3.1% to close at 71.05 HKD, making it the best-performing blue-chip stock. Its peer Hua Hong (01347.HK) rose by 1.6%. The Chinese Embassy in Washington stated its opposition to any tariff measures, pointing out that politicizing, weaponizing, and instrumentalizing economic and technological issues undermines the stability of global supply chains, which is detrimental to all parties and ultimately counterproductive. China will take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.

Guotai Junan Securities reported that the SEMI "Year-End Total Semiconductor Equipment Forecast Report" indicated that global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales are expected to reach 133 billion USD in 2025, growing by 13.7% year-on-year; sales are expected to continue to rise to 145 billion and 156 billion USD in 2026 and 2027, respectively. The firm expects that nearly half of the AI chips in China next year will be domestically produced, and CSP/OEM is also expected to actively procure H200 According to TrendForce data, the overall high-end AI chip market in China is expected to grow by more than 60% by 2026. On one hand, domestic AI chips are still developing towards self-sufficiency, and chip designers with high potential have the opportunity to expand their market share to around 50%; on the other hand, due to the significant performance improvement of NVIDIA's H200 over the H20, it is attractive to end customers. If sales go smoothly, it is expected that Chinese CSP/OEMs will actively procure, thus the H200 or other similar overseas products, if allowed into the Chinese market, have the opportunity to maintain a market share of about 30%. The firm believes that the self-development of AI chips and the easing of overseas restrictions will benefit the domestic computing power infrastructure construction, and related companies in the industry chain will fully benefit.

【Market remains stable, Changfei Fiber rises】

The Hong Kong stock market showed little change, with the rise and fall ratio of main board stocks at 22 to 22 (compared to 22 to 26 the previous day). Today, 40 of the Hang Seng Index constituent stocks rose, while 44 fell, with a rise and fall ratio of 45 to 49 (compared to 57 to 36 the previous day). The market recorded short selling of HKD 12.856 billion today, accounting for 15.821% of the total turnover of HKD 81.264 billion for shortable stocks.

Changfei Fiber (06869.HK) saw its stock price drop by 5.1% yesterday, but today it rebounded by 3.1% to close at HKD 56.3, with a turnover of HKD 1.171 billion. Kaiyuan Securities published a report stating that from the demand side, as AI large model training continues to iterate and the implementation of AI applications accelerates, it may continue to drive global demand for fiber optic cables. The massive data flow demand within data centers, along with high-end single-mode and multi-mode fibers and ultra-high-speed optical modules working together, may achieve efficient short-distance data transmission and flexible interconnection, promoting the evolution of intelligent computing centers towards higher density and lower power consumption.

The firm indicated that in the short term, supply may not meet demand, emphasizing investment opportunities in fiber optic cables. With the vigorous development of AI globally, it may continue to drive the demand for fiber optic cables in the interconnection within data centers and DCI. In the short term, global manufacturers have limited capacity for expansion, which may lead to a supply-demand imbalance. The firm believes that the demand and price for fiber optic cables are expected to maintain steady growth