By Barbara Kollmeyer
Look for Nvidia to go higher and take markets with it, says Mark Newton
Nvidia shares have been on a late-year roll.
Could a &#34;Santa Claus rally&#34; be stirring? The S&amp;P 500 is hovering near fresh highs after Tuesday's action saw it log the 38th record close of the year. All three major indexes logged four straight winning sessions.
Lending a hand on Tuesday were shares of Nvidia (NVDA), which have been in comeback mode after struggling since late October amid investor concerns over an AI bubble and spending on that hot technology.
Monday marked the fourth straight positive session for Nvidia, and our call of the day comes from Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat. Newton said he sees a rebound right on schedule, and the AI-chip maker outperforming over the next few weeks. He also said he sees a bigger message for the stock market.
&#34;Last Friday's breakout in Nvidia managed to exceed the downtrend from October and volume expanded to multi-week highs.  Many investors might have overlooked the breakout in its early stages last week, but this week's follow-through is certainly thought to be an encouraging development for Nvidia and for technology,&#34; he told clients in a note.
Newton said technical resistance for Nvidia is sitting first near $196, then $212, but a weekly close over the latter should help it rally near $220 in the next six to eight weeks. After that, there could be a &#34;more serious stallout at resistance,&#34; and then some backtracking into spring for Nvidia and many semiconductor stocks.
For now, though, investors should prepare to shake off the cobwebs over tech stocks, according to Newton. While the Nasdaq-tracking Invesco QQQ Trust Series I QQQ exchange-traded fund - aka QQQ - has seen underperformance lately, Nvidia's recent gains should help the Nasdaq push higher into the end of the year, he said.
A couple of days before Nvidia started turning higher, Newton told clients a shift was coming. &#34;I mentioned that NVDA's cycle composite was supposed to bottom in late December and trend higher until February of 2026. Technically speaking, this looks to have occurred this week, coincident with a breakout in the ['Magnificent 7'] ETF by Roundhill MAGS,&#34; he said.
Newton said the fact that the S&amp;P 500 has pushed above an important technical level of 6,903 means it could finish above 7,000 by the end of the year. He advised watching out for resistance for the QQQ at 627, then 637.
For now, the push higher for the S&amp;P 500 should eventually see other indexes joining in. But in the weeks to come, he said, it's important that the QQQ doesn't show continued negative divergence with the S&amp;P 500. &#34;At present, I believe it's right to stay long and use any minor pullback to buy dips,&#34; he said.
Newton flagged one more bullish signal, which he said can be found in a chart of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF SMH versus the Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal-weight Technology ETF RSPT, which has been in consolidation mode for two straight months after a breakout of 2024 highs.
&#34;Overall, this monthly chart still makes a compelling case to own semiconductor stocks into 2026. I expect  relative breakout given Nvidia's comeback this week and semiconductors should outperform both tech hardware along with software into February of 2026 if my thinking is correct,&#34; he said.
The markets
U.S. stock futures (ES00) (YM00) (NQ00) are slipping ahead of a shortened session, with gold (GC00), silver (SI00) and copper (HG00) continuing to rise and the dollar DXY falling.
The buzz
Weekly jobless claims are due at 8:30 a.m.
Nike shares (NKE) are rising after SEC data showed Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook bought nearly $3 million in shares of the embattled sportswear maker on Monday.
Intel shares (INTC) are down 3% after Reuters reported that Nvidia had recently tested whether it could manufacture chips using Intel's 18A process technology, but had stopped moving forward.
UiPath stock is surging as Dow Jones Indices said the software group will join the S&amp;P MidCap 400 index on Jan. 2.
BP (BP) is selling a majority stake in its Castrol lubricants units to an investment firm,  valuing it at $8 billion.
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The chart
While gold and silver have commanded much investor attention this year, copper prices have also been marching higher. Copper passed $12,000 a ton on the London Metals Exchange for the first time on Tuesday, and according to Bloomberg, is headed for a 40% annual gain this year - the biggest since 2009. Front-month U.S. copper prices (HG00) climbed to the highest settlement value since July on Tuesday, also looking at around a 38% rise for 2025. Mining disruption, surging demand from technology and tariff worries have driven the gains this year.
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-Barbara Kollmeyer
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
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<p>Mark Newton of Fundstrat predicts Nvidia's stock will rise, boosting tech and the S&P 500. Nvidia's recent gains signal a potential "Santa Claus rally," with resistance levels at $196 and $212. A close above $212 could lead to $220 in 6-8 weeks. Newton advises buying tech stocks on dips, expecting semiconductors to outperform until 2026. The S&P 500 may exceed 7,000 by year-end, but caution is advised if QQQ diverges negatively. Copper prices are also rising, indicating broader market trends.</p>

- Nvidia shares have rebounded, contributing to a recent surge in the S&P 500, which nears record highs.  
- Analyst Mark Newton predicts continued upside for Nvidia, projecting a rise to $220 within weeks, and suggests the technology sector may see overall market gains into early 2026.  
- Despite current market successes, he warns of potential resistance and advises investors to remain long while considering minor pullbacks as buying opportunities.

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