<h2>Introduction</h2>
<p>This week (12.18-12.24), international crude oil prices showed an overall low rebound trend, with a weekly average price increase compared to the previous week. The WTI average price was $57.51 per barrel, an increase of $0.90 per barrel, or 1.58%. Factors supporting oil prices during the week included: tensions in Venezuela's geopolitical situation, Europe tightening sanctions against Russia, a decrease in Kazakhstan's crude oil exports, and improvements in U.S. economic data.</p>
<h2>Review of the Crude Oil Futures Market This Week</h2>
<p>This week (12.18-12.24), crude oil showed an overall low rebound trend, with a weekly average price increase compared to the previous week.</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1226/20251226084805150.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1226/20251226084805150.jpg"/></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1226/20251226084815483.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1226/20251226084815483.jpg"/></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1226/20251226084855151.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1226/20251226084855151.png"/></p>
<p>During the week, the U.S. intercepted several Venezuelan oil tankers, raising investor concerns about the geopolitical situation. U.S. President Trump ordered a complete blockade of all sanctioned tankers entering and leaving Venezuela and stated on social media that he considers the current Venezuelan government a &#34;foreign terrorist organization.&#34; President Trump indicated that he does not rule out the possibility of war with Venezuela and will continue to seize more tankers, leading investors to observe the impact of Venezuela's shipping disruptions on the crude oil market. On the other hand, despite the threats to Venezuela's exports, market data shows that its crude oil export volume remains above recent levels, with data indicating that since December 11, the average daily loading of crude oil has reached 890,000 barrels, higher than the usual 800,000 barrels. Additionally, regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation, the optimism brought by previous U.S.-Ukraine negotiations has gradually weakened, and the uncertainty in the Russia-Ukraine situation continues to support oil prices. The European Council announced sanctions against 41 vessels of Russia's &#34;shadow fleet,&#34; and the EU is prepared to continue increasing pressure on Russia and its &#34;shadow fleet&#34; value chain, with further sanctions to be implemented if necessary. The U.S. has also stated that if Russia does not agree to a peace agreement with Ukraine, it is prepared to impose a new round of sanctions on Russia's energy sector. In terms of supply, industry insiders stated that due to drone attacks in Ukraine damaging the main export terminal facilities of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), the amount of oil transported through this pipeline from Kazakhstan in December is expected to decrease by one-third, reaching the lowest level since October 2024. In terms of inventory, data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that last week, U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories increased. API data indicated that for the week ending December 19, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 2.39 million barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.09 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 685,000 barrels compared to the previous week. In terms of the economy, data from the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the annualized quarterly growth rate of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third quarter of this year was 4.3%, higher than the growth rate of 3.8% in the second quarter
The fastest growth in two years. The positive outlook for the economic prospects and oil demand is supporting oil prices.</p>
<h2>Review of the Crude Oil Spot Market This Week</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1226/20251226084832210.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1226/20251226084832210.jpg"/></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1226/20251226084840804.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1226/20251226084840804.jpg"/></p>
<p>This week, the average international crude oil spot price fluctuated. In the Middle East crude oil market, Qatar Energy lowered the February contract price for Al-Shaheen crude oil. Several trade sources indicated that Qatar Energy has reduced the February contract price for Al-Shaheen crude oil to a premium of $0.53 per barrel over Dubai prices, as benchmark crude oil spot prices softened. The previous January contract price was a premium of $0.84 per barrel. Sources noted that Qatar Energy sold five shipments of Al-Shaheen crude oil at an average premium of about $0.42 per barrel over Dubai prices, with buyers including ENOC, Reliance Industries of India, and HPCL-Mittal Energy of India. Additionally, Qatar Energy sold a shipment of Qatar Marine crude oil to Sinopec at a discount of about $0.6 per barrel to Dubai prices and a shipment of Qatar Land crude oil to Reliance Industries at a premium of about $0.3 per barrel over Dubai prices. Furthermore, data from the Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI) showed that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports rose to a two-and-a-half-year high in October. In October, Saudi crude oil exports increased from 6.46 million barrels per day in September to 7.1 million barrels per day, the highest level since April 2023. JODI data indicated that Saudi domestic refinery crude processing fell to 2.712 million barrels per day in October, down 7.8% from 2.94 million barrels per day in September; the amount of direct-burning crude decreased by 92,000 barrels per day to 393,000 barrels per day. In the Asia-Pacific crude oil spot market, regarding Vietnamese crude oil, supply for February loading is limited, and the supply-demand fundamentals are tightening. PV Oil of Vietnam is only supplying two shipments of Chim Sao and SV-DN crude oil for February loading in the spot market. Additionally, sources said that the low-sulfur fuel oil profits for Asian refineries have improved, which has raised the spot valuation for Chim Sao crude oil for February loading. It is reported that the spot valuation for Chim Sao crude oil for February loading has risen to a premium of $5.50 per barrel over spot Brent.</p>
<h2>Supply and Demand Factors</h2>
<p>This week, on the supply side, the escalating military tensions between the United States and Venezuela may push oil prices higher, and the reduction in Venezuelan supply could strengthen crude oil prices in the Pacific region, which China and India rely on for heavy crude oil supply. However, several institutions predict that global oil supply growth will exceed demand growth by 2026, leading to a more relaxed overall supply-demand balance outlook, and this supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to reverse in the short term, with high inventories and continued capital outflows suppressing market sentiment
Although OPEC+ has paused production increases, which reflects its intention to stabilize prices, it is difficult to change the mid-term surplus trend.</p>
<p>On the demand side, major international energy agencies hold a relatively optimistic outlook for oil demand in 2026, believing that changes in demand structure are creating structural trading opportunities. The recovery of refinery demand is particularly evident, with global refinery profits improving across all regions in November. The core reason is the increase in refinery operating rates and the fact that finished oil inventories remain below historical averages. This trend will directly boost spot demand for crude oil. However, given the current market situation, there has not yet been any force on the oil demand side that can reverse the supply-demand imbalance, as it is currently the off-peak consumption season.</p>
<h2>Changes in U.S. Inventory</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1226/20251226084923302.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1226/20251226084923302.png"/></p>
<p>Due to December 25 being the Western Christmas, the U.S. Energy Information Administration will delay the release of last week's U.S. crude oil and refined product inventory data until next Monday (December 29) at 10:30 AM local time, which is 11:30 PM Beijing time next Monday. Last week, refinery operating rates continued to rise, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased, and gasoline and distillate inventories increased. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, as of the week ending December 12, crude oil inventories were 0.81% higher than the same period last year; 4% lower than the average of the past five years; gasoline inventories were 1.62% higher than the same period last year; slightly lower than the average of the past five years; and distillate inventories were 0.29% higher than the same period last year, but 6% lower than the average of the past five years. Last week, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.525 million barrels per day, a decrease of 64,000 barrels from the previous week, while refined product imports averaged 225.1 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 427,000 barrels from the previous week.</p>
<h2>Fund Positioning</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1226/20251226084938564.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1226/20251226084938564.png"/></p>
<p>Speculators' net long positions in light crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange decreased by 6.1%. According to the latest statistics from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as of the week ending December 16, the open interest in crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 1,916,438 contracts, an increase of 48,472 contracts. Large speculators held a net long position of 54,896 contracts in crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a decrease of 3,537 contracts from the previous week. Among them, long positions totaled 269,214 contracts, an increase of 14,881 contracts from the previous week; short positions totaled 214,318 contracts, an increase of 18,418 contracts.</p>
<h2>Market Outlook for Next Week</h2>
<p>On the technical chart, international crude oil prices are showing an overall low-level rebound trend. The main factors supporting oil prices during the week include: first, the tense geopolitical situation in Venezuela; second, Europe tightening sanctions against Russia; third, a decrease in Kazakhstan's crude oil exports; and fourth, improvements in U.S. economic data. The main factors putting pressure on oil prices during the week include: first, API data showing increases in U.S. crude oil and refined product inventories; and second, ongoing concerns about oversupply. As of the 24th, WTI closed at $58.35 per barrel, an increase of $2.41 per barrel or 4.31% from the previous week
As of the week ending on the 24th, the average price of WTI was $57.51 per barrel, an increase of $0.90 per barrel, or 1.58%, from the previous week. From a technical perspective, this indicates that oil prices may continue to fluctuate at low levels.</p>
<p>In terms of the economy, in the United States, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third consecutive time in December, sending a clear signal that it is no longer just focused on inflation but is also managing risks. This decision reflects growing concerns about the underlying momentum of the country's economy. Although inflation has cooled, the Federal Reserve acknowledges that policy lags, geopolitical uncertainties, and tightening credit conditions are increasingly putting pressure on the outlook. The Federal Reserve is attempting to guide the economy toward a soft landing while avoiding excessive manipulation; rate cuts may continue but will be gradual and only implemented when data permits.</p>
<p>This week, as of December 21, the United States has intercepted three oil tankers in less than two weeks to pressure Venezuela, further escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela. However, dozens of tankers listed under U.S. sanctions remain in the waters near Venezuela, but these tankers will change their routes to Venezuela, with some vessels idling in ports rather than heading to Asia. According to internal documents from Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), as of the 22nd, 1.9 million barrels of heavy crude oil have been delivered to the sanctioned tanker &#34;Azure Voyager,&#34; registered in Aruba, which is currently loading and unloading at Jose Port; however, no other supertankers heading to Asia have been scheduled for loading in the short term.</p>
<p>The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has adjusted a key assumption regarding the global oil market: OPEC's oil production may exceed previous expectations. In the short-term energy outlook released in December, the EIA updated its definitions and valuations of OPEC's crude oil capacity, resulting in significant upward revisions. The agency currently estimates that OPEC's effective capacity for 2024, 2025, and 2026 has increased by approximately 220,000 barrels per day, 370,000 barrels per day, and 310,000 barrels per day, respectively, compared to previous assessments.</p>
<p>According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in November 2025, China's crude oil imports amounted to 50.891 million tons, an increase of 5.2% month-on-month and 4.9% year-on-year; from January to November, China's cumulative crude oil imports reached 522 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%.</p>
<p>Baker Hughes, a U.S. energy services company, reported in its closely watched report that the number of active oil and gas rigs in the U.S. increased for the first time in three weeks. Due to the Christmas holiday, Baker Hughes released its rig count report three days early this week. The data shows that for the week ending December 23, the total number of oil and gas rigs, a leading indicator of future production, increased by 3 to 545, but still decreased by 44 compared to the same period last year, a decline of 7.5%. Baker Hughes stated that the number of oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 3 to 409, while the number of gas rigs remained unchanged at 127
Jinlianchuang expects that next week (12.25-12.31), a series of actions by the United States against Venezuela, along with little progress in the Russia-Ukraine talks, will lead to tighter supply expectations and an increase in geopolitical premiums, thereby supporting a short-term rise in oil prices. If the conflict between the U.S. and Venezuela continues to deepen, it will contribute to a further rebound in oil prices; conversely, oil prices may quickly fall back. Overall, international crude oil prices are likely to fluctuate within a range next week.</p>
<p>The information, views, and forecasts contained in this report reflect the author's personal judgment on the day the report was initially published, based on information the author believes to be reliable and publicly available. While efforts are made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of this information, no guarantees are provided, nor is there any assurance that the views or statements in the report will not change. At different times, the author may issue reports that are inconsistent with the information, opinions, and speculations contained in this report without prior notice. The information or opinions expressed in this report do not constitute investment advice for any individual, and the cases listed in the report are for illustrative reference only. The author assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual due to the use of the content in this report.</p>
<p>This report reflects the author's personal views and does not represent the research judgments of Jinlianchuang or the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Jinlianchuang or the Chicago Mercantile Exchange does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the report. This report is transmitted only to specific clients, and the copyright belongs to Jinlianchuang. Without written permission from Jinlianchuang, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy, quote, or reprint it in any form.</p>
<p>The market has risks, and investment should be cautious</p>

<p>This week (12.18-12.24), international crude oil prices rebounded from a low level, with the average price of WTI at USD 57.51 per barrel, an increase of 1.58% compared to the previous period. A Venezuelan tanker was intercepted by the United States, leading to heightened geopolitical tensions, while Europe tightened sanctions against Russia, and Kazakhstan's crude oil exports decreased. Improvements in U.S. economic data also supported oil prices. Despite threats to Venezuelan exports, its daily loading volume of crude oil remains above recent levels. The uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation and the EU's sanctions against Russia also impact oil prices</p>

Venezuelan oil tanker pursued and intercepted by the United States, international oil prices rebound from low levels