Copper prices have risen over 33% this year, marking the largest increase in sixteen years. Analysts estimate a structural shortage starting next year

Commodity prices remain strong, with silver prices hitting a historical high this morning (29th) before retreating. Due to factors such as U.S. tariffs, supply disruptions (major accidents at three large copper mines globally), and concerns about global shortages, copper prices have repeatedly reached new highs since October, rising to over USD 12,000 per ton this month, marking a historical peak and an increase of over 33% this year, the largest rise since 2009 (when it rose over 140% as the economy recovered from the financial crisis).

The Financial Times cites analysts predicting that the copper supply-demand imbalance is likely to persist until the 2030s, with copper prices expected to remain high next year (2026). The shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, along with the electrification of vehicles and the booming demand for data centers supporting AI needs, all support copper demand. However, aging copper mines, declining productivity, and the time-consuming and costly process of developing new copper mines pose challenges.

The report quotes Natalie Scott-Gray, a senior metal demand analyst at commodity broker StoneX, stating that persistently high copper prices may lead some manufacturers to switch to alternative materials, with demand in some non-core areas, such as decarbonization, potentially being impacted. She noted that the rise in copper prices is one of the elements of this year's "perfect storm" in the commodity market, stemming from the easing of U.S.-China relations, negotiations regarding Russia and Ukraine, and the impact of U.S. import tariffs.

The report also cites Alastair Munro, a base metals strategist at financial services firm Marex, who states that many market participants expect a structural shortage in copper supply starting next year.

Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (00358.HK) reached a high of HKD 41.98 today (29th), setting a historical high. It is currently reported at HKD 41.08, up 10.31%, with a transaction volume of HKD 1.531 billion. Additionally, China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (01208.HK) rose by 2.3%, China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK) increased by nearly 3%, and China Daye Nonferrous Metals (00661.HK) surged by 11%. Zijin Mining (02899.HK) remained stable, while China Molybdenum (03993.HK) fell by 1.2%