JP Morgan lowers JD.com's fourth quarter revenue growth forecast to 1%

JP Morgan released a report, lowering JD.com (09618.HK)'s revenue growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 from a year-on-year increase of 6% to 1%, reflecting that the weak performance of home appliance sales in October and November is unlikely to improve in December. According to JP Morgan's forecast, JD.com's sales in the electronics and home appliance categories for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to decline by more than 10% year-on-year. Therefore, it is believed that JD.com's retail revenue growth will struggle to exceed the overall growth of online physical goods sales in the industry.

JP Morgan observed that due to revenue pressures and increased promotional activities, it is expected that JD.com's profit margin in the fourth quarter will further decline year-on-year, leading to a year-on-year decrease of over 20% in JD.com's retail operating profit, while JD Group as a whole will only achieve an adjusted net profit slightly above breakeven, contrary to the bank's previous forecast of a quarter-on-quarter improvement compared to the third quarter.

As a result, the bank has lowered its revenue forecasts for JD.com for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 1%, 3%, and 8%, respectively, and adjusted net profit forecasts by 17%, 20%, and 23%, to reflect the fourth quarter's performance being below expectations, low visibility in consumer outlook, and the impact of the competitive landscape in China's e-commerce industry