China Slaps Curbs on U.S. Beef — Will Tyson Foods Stock (TSN) Feel the Squeeze in 2026?

Chinese authorities announced on Wednesday plans to impose a 55% tariff on beef imports from countries that surpassed quota levels, including Brazil, Australia, and the U.S.Claim 70% Off TipRanks This Holiday SeasonUnlock hedge fund-level data and powerful investing tools for smarter, sharper decisions Stay ahead of the market with the latest news and analysis and maximize your portfolio's potential However, the impact of such a move on U.S. beef packing giant Tyson Foods (TSN), rival JBS USA (JBS), and privately held counterparts, such as Cargill Meat Solutions and National Beef Packing, is likely to be limited. This is due to several factors, including the current shortage in beef supply in the U.S., which has pushed retail beef prices to record highs. China Seeks to Shore Up Domestic Beef Industry According to China's Ministry of Commerce, the decision to impose the curbs came after its investigation — which was launched in December last year and extended for three months in August — showed that the quantity of imported beef "seriously damaged China's domestic industry." Consequently, the ministry said its new "safeguard measures" will limit imports from the affected countries to 2.7 million metric tons. The measures, which are expected to be active for three years starting from January 1, 2026, cover beef products made from live cattle, regardless of whether they are fresh, chilled, or frozen, bone‑in or boneless. Brazil, Argentina, and Australia are much larger suppliers of beef to China. However, the measure also extends to the U.S. and caps imports from American meat packers to 164,000 tons in 2026. This is expected to be expanded gradually over the years, with 168,000 tons in 2027 and 171,000 tons in 2028. Why the Impact on Tyson Foods Will Be Limited For the new year, the impact on U.S.-based beef exporters is expected to be limited after Beijing, in March, allowed export permits for hundreds of American meat facilities to expire without renewal. This came amid the retaliatory tariff dispute between the U.S. and China. In addition, while beef represents the biggest source of revenue for Tyson, sales from its exports and non-U.S. operations account for a much smaller portion of the business (see the chart below).