<div id="readability-page-1"><span></span><div><p><em>This is CNBC's Morning Squawk newsletter. </em><em>Subscribe here</em><em> to receive future editions in your inbox.</em></p><p>Happy Wednesday and New Year's Eve. I've decided that there are three main groups of holiday observers this year: Those going to parties or watching the Times Square ball drop at home; those doing late-night workout classes or races; and those going to <span id="SpecialReportArticle-QuoteInBody-2">AMC<span><span id="-WatchlistDropdown"></span></span></span> viewings of the &#34;Stranger Things&#34; finale.</p><p>This newsletter normally walks you through five things to know before the market opens. Today, that list would include Federal Reserve minutes that showed a divisive December meeting, and new details about SoftBank's investment in OpenAI.</p><p>But as 2025 comes to an end, we're taking a step back to instead look at five of the biggest trends that shaped Wall Street, Main Street and Silicon Valley this year.</p><p>Here are five themes for investors to consider as they finish out 2025.</p></div><h2>1. The stock market that defied gravity</h2><div id="ArticleBody-InlineImage-108189906"><div><div><p>A trader reacts on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, U.S., August 22, 2025.  </p><p>Brendan McDermid | Reuters</p></div></div></div><div><p>It was another good year for investors.</p><p>Major market indexes surged to all-time highs, and the three major averages are on track for their third straight positive year. But it's been a bumpy ride: The <span id="SpecialReportArticle-QuoteInBody-6">S&amp;P 500<span><span id="-WatchlistDropdown"></span></span></span> briefly tumbled into bear market territory in April after President Donald Trump unveiled his tariff plan, some of which he later walked back. The market also scaled walls of worry around artificial intelligence spending and lingering inflation.</p><p>Retail investors had a gangbuster year after buying the post-tariff announcement dip, and they've shown an appetite for buzzy tech names such as <span id="SpecialReportArticle-QuoteInBody-12">Palantir<span><span id="-WatchlistDropdown"></span></span></span> and <span id="SpecialReportArticle-QuoteInBody-13">Nvidia<span><span id="-WatchlistDropdown"></span></span></span>. Wall Street, meanwhile, is optimistic that stocks will climb even higher in the new year.</p><p>Precious metals and crypto have also hit new highs this year. Here's where the different investment classes stand for 2025, with one trading session remaining:</p><ul><li>The <span id="SpecialReportArticle-QuoteInBody-15">Dow Jones Industrial Average<span><span id="-WatchlistDropdown"></span></span></span> is up 13.7%.</li><li>The <span id="SpecialReportArticle-QuoteInBody-16">S&amp;P 500<span><span id="-WatchlistDropdown"></span></span></span> is up 17.3%.</li><li>The <span id="SpecialReportArticle-QuoteInBody-17">Nasdaq Composite<span><span id="-WatchlistDropdown"></span></span></span> is up 21.3%.</li><li>The small cap-focused <span id="SpecialReportArticle-QuoteInBody-18">Russell 2000<span><span id="-WatchlistDropdown"></span></span></span> is up 12.1%.</li><li><span id="SpecialReportArticle-QuoteInBody-19">Gold<span><span id="-WatchlistDropdown"></span></span></span> is up 66.1%.</li><li><span id="SpecialReportArticle-QuoteInBody-20">Silver<span><span id="-WatchlistDropdown"></span></span></span> is up 166.5%.</li><li>The <span id="SpecialReportArticle-QuoteInBody-21">U.S. 10-year Treasury<span><span id="-WatchlistDropdown"></span></span></span> note is down 13.1%.</li><li>The <span id="SpecialReportArticle-QuoteInBody-22">dollar index<span><span id="-WatchlistDropdown"></span></span></span> is down 9.5%.</li><li><span id="SpecialReportArticle-QuoteInBody-23">WTI crude oil<span><span id="-WatchlistDropdown"></span></span></span> is down 19.2%.</li><li><span id="SpecialReportArticle-QuoteInBody-24">Bitcoin<span><span id="-WatchlistDropdown"></span></span></span> is down 5.8%.</li><li>Follow live market updates on the last trading day of 2025.</li></ul></div><h2>2. The T-word</h2><div id="ArticleBody-InlineImage-108152139"><div><div><p>President Donald Trump holds a chart as he announces a plan for tariffs on imported goods during an event April 2, 2025, in the Rose Garden at the White House. </p><p>Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images</p></div></div></div><div><p>Following Trump's return to the White House in January, new tariffs on U.S. trading partners set the agenda for investors and business leaders.</p><p>Companies raced to adjust supply chains ahead of Trump's broad and steep tariffs on imports from most foreign countries. Some businesses tried to curry favor in Washington, D.C., — to mixed reviews — in a bid to avoid facing the harshest duties. Meanwhile, economists worried that the levies could reignite inflationary pressures and lead to higher prices for consumers, while small businesses said that they can't absorb cost increases like larger firms can.</p><p>But the fate of Trump's trade policy now hangs in the balance, as the world waits for the Supreme Court's decision on whether the new tariffs are legal. White House officials have said there are other ways to implement the vast duties, even if the nation's highest court rules against the president.</p></div><h2>3. The great AI race</h2><div id="ArticleBody-InlineImage-108082970"><div><div><p>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang delivers a keynote address at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2025, showcasing the company's latest innovations in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, on January 6, 2025.</p><p>Artur Widak | Anadolu | Getty Images</p></div></div></div><div><p>We can't tell the story of 2025 without the influence of artificial intelligence companies and their technology.</p><p>AI titans including Nvidia and OpenAI struck multibillion-dollar deals with companies focused on hardware and data centers — and even with each other — as they raced to meet booming demand. AI once again captured the imagination of Wall Street, prompting investors to jump into stocks tied to the trade.</p><p>But the sector also picked up its fair share of skeptics. Chief among critics' concerns: an AI bubble that could pop. Such an event would mark a paradigm shift for a stock market and U.S. economy increasingly reliant on spending tied to AI.</p></div><div><div id="SpecialReportArticle-RelatedContent-1"><div><div><h2>Get Morning Squawk directly in your inbox</h2><div><p>CNBC's Morning Squawk recaps the biggest stories investors should know before the stock market opens, every weekday morning.</p><p>Subscribe here to get access today.</p></div></div></div></div></div><h2>4. Fedfluence</h2><div id="ArticleBody-InlineImage-108177029"><div><div><p>US President Donald Trump speaks with Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell (R) as he visits the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC, on July 24, 2025.</p><p>Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | Afp | Getty Images</p></div></div></div><div><p>The U.S. Federal Reserve and its policymakers took center stage in 2025, as Trump waged a pressure campaign on the central bank to lower interest rates. The Fed cut interest rates three times this year, bringing the key overnight borrowing rate in a range between 3.5%-3.75%. Still, the president called for more.</p><p>Trump has said he'd &#34;love to fire&#34; Chair Jerome Powell, which would be an unprecedented and — as the Supreme Court indicated — legally dubious move. He went even further in August, when he attempted to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, citing allegations of mortgage fraud. The Supreme Court has allowed Cook to remain in her position while she challenges the firing.</p><p>Some Fed watchers worry that Trump could get the Fed influence he wants in 2026: Powell's term as chair ends in May, and Trump will have the chance to nominate his pick for the central bank's next leader. There's significant disagreement among voting members on the path forward for interest rates as the Fed contends with a stalling labor market and lingering inflation. Its next chair could be a decisive vote.</p></div><h2>5. Mixed economic signals</h2><div id="ArticleBody-InlineImage-108240302"><div><div><p>Job seekers attend a career fair in Harlem hosted by Assemblymember Jordan Wright on Dec. 10, 2025, in New York City.</p><p>Spencer Platt | Getty Images</p></div></div></div><div><p>When it came to the U.S. consumer in 2025, one letter told the story. The &#34;K&#34;-shaped economy became the go-to descriptor for an economic environment in which the best-off consumers are splashing out, while lower-earners buckle under higher costs.</p><p>An ode to how the two ends of the economic spectrum diverged in opposite directions, the &#34;K&#34;-shaped economy helps explain, for example, why airlines rushed to build out premium offerings at the same time that fast-food chains pushed value-focused menu items.</p><p>Meanwhile, the &#34;low hire, low fire&#34; job market became increasingly hard to ignore. Recent college grads in particular felt the pinch, and economic policymakers fretted about slowing labor growth. That contributed to a year of bad vibes for the economy, with everyday Americans reporting some of the lowest levels of consumer sentiment on record. A historically long government shutdown didn't help, either.</p></div><h2>The Daily Dividend</h2><div><p>In honor of year-end, we thought it'd be fun to highlight some of the punniest sub-headlines from this year's newsletters. If we missed one that left you particularly amused, I'd love to hear which it was via email at alex.harring@versantmedia.com. Here were some of our favorites:</p><ul><li><strong>The art of the steel: </strong>Trump signs order to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum</li><li><strong>Bedeviled eggs: </strong>Egg prices are threatening a classic holiday tradition: Easter dye kits</li><li><strong>SoftBank, hard launch:</strong> SoftBank to acquire chip designer Ampere in $6.5 billion deal </li><li><strong>IP-whoa:</strong> Conservative cable channel Newsmax spikes more than 700% in first trading day on NYSE</li><li><strong>New tariff in town: </strong>First round of Trump's new duties takes effect</li><li><strong>Fall out boys:</strong> Elon Musk blasts Trump: 'Without me, Trump would have lost'</li><li><strong>Quarter quell: </strong>Trump advocates end to quarterly earnings reports</li><li><strong>The hunt for green October: </strong>S&amp;P 500 kicks off new month by closing above 6,700 for first time</li></ul><p><em>Special thanks to CNBC's Sara Salinas, Jacob Pramuk and Michele Luhn, who authored Morning Squawk until this fall. Josephine Rozzelle edited this edition.</em></p></div></div>

NVDA

OpenAI

<p>In 2025, key themes shaping business and markets included a resilient stock market, new tariffs under President Trump, the rise of artificial intelligence, and the influence of the Federal Reserve. Major indexes reached all-time highs, with retail investors capitalizing on market dips. Tariffs prompted companies to adjust supply chains, raising concerns about inflation. AI companies like Nvidia and OpenAI secured significant deals, while skepticism about an AI bubble emerged. The Federal Reserve's policies also played a crucial role in market dynamics as the year concluded.</p>

- In 2025, major market indexes reached all-time highs despite challenges such as tariffs and inflation.  
- A competitive landscape emerged in artificial intelligence, prompting both investment enthusiasm and skepticism regarding a potential bubble.  
- The U.S. Federal Reserve faced pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, as economic signals indicated a "K"-shaped recovery with stark disparities in consumer sentiment.

5 themes that defined business and markets in 2025: Morning Squawk