Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) is down 71% from its November 2024 peak of $543 to $156 while facing $8.8 billion in forced outflows if MSCI excludes it on Jan. 15.



<h3>The Change That Crushed Bulls</h3>



On July 31, Strategy published equity guidance in its earnings deck stating it would not issue common stock below 2.5x mNAV except to pay interest on debt obligations and fund preferred equity dividends.



The company has $824 million in annual preferred dividends. 



However, since that July announcement, Strategy issued $4.9 billion in common stock with $4 billion of that issued at a mNAV below 1.0x in November and December.



Strategy claims it’s targeting two years of preferred dividend coverage, which would account for $1.6 billion of the $4.9 billion total.



But that still leaves $3.3 billion in dilutive stock sales that violated its own five-month-old guidance.



Crypto analyst Novacula Occami called out the broken promise in a Dec. 30 post, highlighting how the company abandoned its disciplined capital allocation framework just months after announcing it.



<h3>The MSCI Doomsday Clock: January 15</h3>



Strategy faces an existential threat from MSCI, which proposed excluding companies with digital asset holdings exceeding 50% of total assets from its Global Investable Market Indexes.



JPMorgan warned the exclusion could trigger approximately $2.8 billion in forced selling of Strategy shares, with total outflows potentially reaching $8.8 billion if S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices and FTSE Russell follow suit.



Polymarket traders assign a 76% probability that major indexes will remove Strategy by March 31, 2026, signaling strong conviction that an exclusion is increasingly likely.



<h3>Strategy’s Defense: “We’re Not A Fund”</h3>



In a Dec. 10 letter signed by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le, Strategy argued it’s a conventional operating business, not an investment fund or passive tracking vehicle.



The company claimed Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) holdings are used as productive capital to create returns through digital credit instruments, not just passive storage. 



Strategy also called the 50% digital asset threshold arbitrary, noting other industries like oil, real estate, and timber hold concentrated single-asset reserves without index exclusion.



The company warned the proposal could stifle innovation in the digital asset industry and conflict with pro-innovation U.S. policy under the Trump administration.



<h3>The Technical Carnage</h3>



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MSTR Price Analysis By TradingView



Strategy is trading at $155.61 as of Dec. 31, down approximately 67% from its July peak near $473.



The stock is trapped in a descending channel with the Supertrend indicator at $185.36 and SAR at $176.69 acting as overhead resistance. 



Any meaningful recovery requires reclaiming the $176.69 level first, representing a +13.5% move.



Immediate downside risk sits at $140-$145 if $155 support breaks, with catastrophic losses toward $100 possible if the selling accelerates.



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Image: Shutterstock

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Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) has plummeted 71% since its November 2024 peak, currently trading at $156. The company faces potential forced outflows of $8.8 billion if excluded from MSCI indexes due to its digital asset holdings. Despite issuing $4.9 billion in common stock, it violated its own guidance on capital allocation. Analysts predict a 76% chance of exclusion by March 2026, which could trigger significant selling pressure. Strategy argues it is a conventional business, not a fund, and warns that the exclusion could hinder innovation in the digital asset sector.

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