The S&amp;P 500, which is tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), set several record highs in 2025 and ended the year in positive territory. Here's how Benzinga readers' year‑end prediction stacked up against the final result.



<h2>S&amp;P 500 Year-End Gains</h2>



The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust is up 17.1% year-to-date with just hours left to go before 2025 bows out, likely hitting the top range of a question asked by Benzinga earlier this year.



Benzinga polled readers asking what the return of President Donald Trump to the White House meant and if it could produce similar stock-market returns to his first year in office previously.



In 2017, the initial year of Trump's first presidency, the SPY was up 21.7%.



“What do you think the return will be in 2025, his first year back,” Benzinga asked readers in January 2025.



The results were:



<ul>
<li>16%+ gain: 26%</li>



<li>11% to 15% gain: 22%</li>



<li>Will Decline: 22%</li>



<li>6% to 10% gain: 19%</li>



<li>0% to 5% gain: 12%</li>
</ul>



The largest share of respondents went with the most bullish prediction, with 26% expecting the index to rise at least 16% for the year — and that group ultimately proved correct.



The second‑most popular pick, calling for an 11% to 15% gain, came close but ended up slightly conservative.



Those who chose the &#34;Will Decline&#34; option — which tied for the second‑most votes — missed by the widest margin, as SPY finished the year up more than 17%.



And while readers nailed the S&amp;P 500's overall direction in 2025, they were far less accurate when predicting the top‑performing Magnificent Seven stock.



Readers predicted NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) to be the top gaining of the seven stocks, with a near majority (48%) picking the semiconductor company. Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL), which outperformed the rest of group in 2025, had ranked fifth with only 6% of the vote.



Read Also: EXCLUSIVE: ‘Bull Run Continues, But The Stampede Is Not Going To Be There’ In 2026, Says Market Expert



<h2>What's Next</h2>



After a strong and record-breaking 2025, investors want to know if 2026 will bring similar returns or better. The first year of Trump's second presidency marked the fourth best return in the last five years for the S&amp;P 500. Here are the recent returns:



<ul>
<li>2024: +24.9%</li>



<li>2023: +26.2%</li>



<li>2022: -18.2%</li>



<li>2021: +28.8%</li>
</ul>



The 2025 return of 17.1% is also the fourth best of five years that Trump has been in office for the majority of the full year. Here are the past returns with Trump in the White House:



<ul>
<li>2020: +18.4%</li>



<li>2019: +31.2%</li>



<li>2018: -4.6%</li>



<li>2017: +21.7%</li>
</ul>



Investors likely would love to see the same strong returns in three of the four years with Trump in office previously and also see a return to the 24% or more gains they saw in three of the last four years prior to 2025.



Read Next: 



<ul>
<li>EXCLUSIVE: Jay Woods Picks His Favorite And Least Favorite Magnificent 7 Stocks For 2026 – ‘A Story To Watch’</li>
</ul>



Image: Shutterstock

NVDA

GOOG

GOOGL

The S&P 500 gained approximately 17% in 2025, with Benzinga readers predicting a range of outcomes. The majority (26%) anticipated a gain of over 16%, which proved accurate. However, predictions for the top-performing stock were less precise, with NVIDIA expected to lead, while Alphabet outperformed. The S&P 500's performance in 2025 marked the fourth best return during Trump's presidency, following strong gains in previous years. Investors are now curious if 2026 will yield similar results.

- The S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, achieved a year-end gain of 17.1% in 2025, marking several record highs.  
- A Benzinga poll earlier this year revealed that 26% of readers predicted a gain of 16% or more, aligning with the actual outcome, while NVIDIA was less accurately predicted as the top performer.  
- The 2025 performance is noted as the fourth best return in five years during Trump’s presidency, prompting investors to speculate about the potential for continued strong returns in 2026.

S&P 500 Gains 17% in 2025 — Did Benzinga Readers Nail The Prediction?