<div id="readability-page-1"><div>Company: DiDi Global Inc.Ticker: DIDIY (OTC ADR)Price at time of writing: $5.45Date: December 24th 2025ThesisWhat the company doesDiDi Global operates the dominant ride-hailing platform in China the world's largest ride-hailing market and holds leading positions (No. 1 or No. 2) in every major international market where it operates, including Brazil and Mexico. The business is asset-light, profitable, and already scaled.Why the stock is mispriced todayDiDi is not priced as a weak business. It is priced as an uninvestable security. Following its forced NYSE delisting, DiDi trades in an OTC limbo that excludes most long-only institutional funds, benchmark mandates, and investors restricted from owning OTC or pink-sheet securities. This plumbing discount not operating performance dominates valuation.Why a 2 outcome within 12 months is plausibleA credible move toward a Hong Kong relisting or formal regulatory clearance to pursue one would restore institutional access and normalize trading conditions. DiDi does not need earnings acceleration. It only needs to move from structurally excluded to politically tolerated and tradable.That shift alone can plausibly reprice the equity by 50100% within a year.Valuation AnchorA useful way to anchor DiDi's valuation is to compare it to global ride-hailing peers on both scale and dominance, assuming DiDi were liquid and institutionally accessible.Revenue scale (approximate):<ul><li>DiDi Global: ~$30B</li><li>Uber Technologies: ~$4550B</li><li>Grab Holdings: ~$12B</li></ul>DiDi is vastly larger than Grab and closer to Uber in operating scale, while being more dominant in its core market than either.Market capitalizations:<ul><li>Grab: ~$20B</li><li>Uber: ~$170B</li></ul>Given DiDi's scale, profitability, and market leadership, a normalized valuation between Grab and Uber is reasonable once market access is restored. That implies a $50100B market cap range, which comfortably supports a doubling of equity value from current levels.CatalystThe most likely end state for DiDi is not a forced migration from OTC to Hong Kong, but a fungible dual-listing structure, similar to Alibaba or NetEase. According to DiDi's investor relations, existing OTC shares are expected to be convertible into Hong Konglisted shares through a broker request mechanism, rather than automatic conversion. This structure matters because:<ul><li>Arbitrage links the markets, preventing persistent valuation gaps</li><li>The investor universe expands materially, as the pool of investors able to own HK-listed equities is far larger than those permitted to own OTC securities</li></ul>Even investors unable to hold Hong Kong shares directly should benefit through price convergence.There is strong precedent for this kind of repricing. Alibaba, JD.com, NetEase, and Baidu all saw valuation resilience improve after secondary Hong Kong listings, while China Mobile experienced a material re-rating after relisting in Hong Kong following NYSE delisting. In each case, the key driver was not improved fundamentals, but restored liquidity and political normalization.Within a 12-month horizon, the following developments could plausibly unlock value:<ul><li>A formal announcement or filing related to a Hong Kong relisting</li><li>Explicit regulatory clearance or public signals of normalization</li><li>Confirmation of fungibility between OTC and HK shares</li><li>Inclusion in Hong Kongtracked indices or eligibility for southbound capital flows</li><li>Restoration of analyst coverage and institutional participation</li></ul>Importantly, completion is not required. Credible progress alone is often enough to trigger a sharp repricing.Bear Case<ul><li>Hong Kong relisting delayed indefinitely</li><li>Renewed regulatory tightening or cybersecurity actions</li><li>State influence caps equity upside</li><li>Stock remains stuck in OTC limbo</li></ul>In this scenario, the stock may stagnate or decline further. This is a binary, regime-risk thesis, not a traditional value investment thesis.Guru ActivitySeveral respected long-term investors have been accumulating DiDi despite its OTC status:<ul><li>Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund (Trades, Portfolio) (Trades, Portfolio) , a long-tenured Asia-focused emerging-market manager, has been a steady buyer throughout the year.</li><li>Robert Vinall (RV Capital), who runs a highly concentrated, owner-oriented portfolio, owns DiDi for his clients.</li></ul>This ownership profile suggests some investors are underwriting DiDi not as a near-term trade, but as a dominant platform whose valuation is artificially suppressed by market-access constraints.Final NoteI am submitting this idea out of contest as an editor not for prizes, but to contribute to the discussion. DiDi is a useful case study in how market access, regulatory normalization, and listing mechanics can dominate price action even when the underlying business is already strong.This is:<ul><li>Not a classic value investment thesis</li><li>Not a long-term compounder thesis</li><li>But a credible double-within-a-year candidate under the contest rules due to volatility, structural mispricing, and a single dominant catalyst</li></ul></div></div>

DIDIY

DiDi Global Inc. operates the leading ride-hailing platform in China and is mispriced due to its OTC status following a NYSE delisting. The stock could see a 50-100% increase within a year if it achieves a Hong Kong relisting or regulatory clearance. Comparatively, DiDi's revenue scale positions it favorably against peers like Uber and Grab, suggesting a potential market cap of $50-100B. Key catalysts include formal announcements regarding a relisting and improved market access, while risks involve regulatory delays and continued OTC trading limitations. Some investors are accumulating shares, viewing DiDi as undervalued.

DiDi Global: From Uninvestable to Ownable Again