Labubu's price has collapsed, but Wang Ning is smiling

Last December, we reported on a "985" university student who made over 20,000 yuan a day by reselling POP MART blind boxes. In his memory, his only task at that time was to find ways to grab the goods; as long as he could get Labubu, especially the vinyl series, he could make a profit immediately, with the most expensive doll yielding nearly 2,000 yuan in profit. A year later, the situation for POP MART has changed completely. This December, the original price of 594 yuan for a box of Labubu Sit Party vinyl plush series has seen its average price on second-hand platforms drop from 1,478 yuan to around 632 yuan; some single styles originally priced at 99 yuan have even fallen below the original price, with flash sales going as low as 82 yuan. Now, a scalper who has been reselling Labubu tells us that it is no longer easy to do business domestically. Taking the "High Energy Ahead" series vinyl plush keychain as an example, the official price for the blind box is 99 yuan, but the unopened uncertain style can only sell for 89 yuan; only specific styles can barely be sold at a markup of 30 yuan. Even so, the profits are far less than last year, and he repeatedly emphasizes one thing: now it's small money, the market is no longer the same. Average Transaction Price of Labubu on Second-Hand Platforms At the end of this December, a player from Liaoning listed a brand new unopened "High Energy Ahead" series hidden style on a second-hand platform for 600 yuan. From the results, this is not a price for someone in a hurry to sell, as platform data shows that the average transaction price for the same style in the past three days is around 558 yuan. A blind box with an official price of 99 yuan can have a premium of about six times, which still seems like a good deal to outsiders. However, for those in the trendy toy circle, such a price appearing on POP MART would have been unimaginable just a few months ago. Eight months ago, when the "High Energy Ahead" series was just released, the hidden style "Ben Wo" was recognized as the most valuable in the entire series. At that time, grabbing new products meant profit margins, and buying the whole set (referring to the entire series of blind boxes) meant betting on high returns. Some people waited up all night for restocks, some paid for proxy purchases, and others bought entire boxes just to increase their chances of getting the hidden style. Prices were pushed to new heights in this chase. Data from second-hand platforms showed that the transaction price for the "Ben Wo" hidden style once exceeded 5,400 yuan, and even after a slight drop in popularity, the long-term transaction price remained above 1,000 yuan. It wasn't until June of this year that prices peaked and began to decline continuously, eventually falling to the current range of over 500 yuan. This change is not an isolated case. On platforms like Xianyu, Qiandao, and Dewu, the number of Labubu listings has significantly increased, but transaction prices have simultaneously decreased. In some discount chain stores, blind boxes that used to require a rush are now displayed prominently with limited-time discount tags; on overseas e-commerce platforms, once-popular styles that required queue reservations now show available stock on their pages If we zoom out a bit, a similar cooling trend is also evident in the capital market. Since reaching a peak of HKD 339.8 in late August, the stock price of POP MART has been on a downward trend, falling to about HKD 189 by mid-December, with a cumulative decline of over 40% and a market value evaporating by more than HKD 200 billion. These changes are difficult to explain by any single announcement, product, or specific event. However, when prices are no longer repeatedly questioned, and new products are no longer quickly sold out, the market has provided feedback in the most direct way—what cools down first in the trendy toy market is never sales, but confidence. The popularity of POP MART is clearly declining. 01 POP MART has started selling at half price Looking back over the past two years, Labubu has been almost a textbook success story. In the real world, Labubu once became a global phenomenon. It became common to see long lines outside POP MART stores in major cities, with some popular styles requiring reservations or even cross-city purchases. In London, there were even conflicts triggered by rush buying. Celebrities like Rihanna, Lisa, and Beckham showcased their Labubu on social media, quickly amplifying the topic's effect. Scarcity, premium pricing, and emotions were all pushed to their peak at the same time. For a moment, Labubu was no longer just a trendy toy IP, but rather a form of "currency" recognized by the collective. Over the past two years, Labubu has become a global phenomenon / Source: POP MART Getting one meant potential for resale. Owning one meant being at the center of the trend. The hype did not only stay in the real world; the capital market also gave it a very high rating. From the low point of its stock price in 2023 to reaching a peak in August 2025, POP MART's stock price increased by more than 22 times, outperforming gold and most consumer stocks during the same period, earning it the nickname "the Moutai of young people," being both scarce and speculative, with an emotional premium. JP Morgan once pointed out in a research report that Labubu is accelerating its growth into a global super IP. By May 2025, its popularity on search engines had briefly surpassed that of Hello Kitty. Such an evaluation is almost a rare height for a trendy toy IP born in China. On October 21, 2025, POP MART released its third-quarter business announcement. The data showed that the company's overall revenue grew by 245% to 250% year-on-year, with the Chinese market growing by 185% to 190%, and overseas markets seeing a year-on-year increase of 365% to 370%. This financial report continued the high growth momentum of the first half of the year and once again raised external expectations for the trendy toy industry. POP MART's third-quarter business announcement this year shows that the company's overall revenue grew by 245% to 250% year-on-year. However, right after the release of this "continued growth" financial report, POP MART's stock price did not continue to rise. Since reaching a peak of HKD 339.8 in August, POP MART's stock price has been on a continuous decline, with a current drop of over 45%. While performance remains high, market sentiment has loosened ahead of time This change is reflected more quickly and directly in the second-hand market. The Labubu Strange Convenience Store series, released on June 12, saw its price soar from 199 yuan to over 4,600 yuan on the second day of its launch, with a transaction volume exceeding 170 that day. However, as official restocks followed, the price quickly fell back below 1,000 yuan, subsequently dropping to around 260 yuan. The trend of the fourth-generation mini Labubu almost replicated this process. When it was released online on August 28, it sold out instantly, and the price for a complete set on second-hand platforms once surged to 1,600 yuan, with hidden variants nearing 800 yuan. By late December, platform data showed that the average transaction price for hidden variants had fallen to 264 yuan, and the price for a complete set dropped to 1,077 yuan. The rapid change in prices has rewritten expectations. Journalists observed that scalpers posted on social media stating, "Pause the acquisition of the Labubu series"; on Xianyu, some regular models were already priced below the original selling price; even consumers were influenced, commenting on social media that if all styles were below the original price, they would just buy what they liked without worrying about box draws. Some consumers also found that in certain discount retail stores, older POP MART products were being prominently displayed and sold at half price or even lower. For an IP that once required a scramble to purchase, this change alone is enough to indicate the situation. The market quickly interpreted this change as a shift in sentiment. Huatai Securities mentioned in a research report that concerns about the certainty of POP MART's performance growth in 2026 mainly stemmed from an over-reliance on Labubu in overseas markets, while the recognition of other IPs remained limited. However, if we only look at the product structure and revenue structure, "relying on a single IP" is not the real issue. According to media analysis by Yuanchuan Research Institute, POP MART's current core IPs include THE MONSTERS, DIMOO, SKULLPANDA, Molly, and CRYBABY. The THE MONSTERS series, where Labubu belongs, is indeed the main revenue driver, accounting for 34.7% of revenue in the first half of the year, but its explosion has not squeezed out other IPs. Taking Molly, the first launched IP, as an example, its series sales grew from 40 million yuan in 2017 to about 2 billion yuan by 2024, and the trends of other core IPs are generally similar. So, what is the real reason for the market's cautious attitude? The answer lies in changes on the supply side. Over the past year, POP MART has significantly accelerated its production expansion, systematically resolving the shortage issue, and the decline in scarcity has become a core reason repeatedly mentioned by bears. 02 Actively Hitting the Brakes The turning point occurred on June 18. On that day, POP MART officially announced a large-scale restock of the Labubu 3.0 series and simultaneously launched online pre-sales. For the market, this was not an ordinary restock but a fundamental change in supply expectations—indicating that Labubu was no longer a scarce item that was "impossible to get," but rather a regular product that could be "waited for and purchased." The changes quickly transmitted to the price end. A few months ago, Labubu 3.0 was in a state of supply shortage, where players had to stay up late to secure their purchases, scalpers raised prices layer by layer, and bulk buying was rampant, all just to exchange for a chance at a hidden version. However, when the pre-sale mechanism and stable supply were both activated, all judgments based on the sense of urgency began to fail. Prices no longer only looked upward, and the market began to seriously consider the possibility of "downward" for the first time. This is not a temporary decision by POP MART; in fact, its supply-side adjustments had already been initiated. In August of this year, Yuan Junjie, president of POP MART's supply chain center, publicly stated that, for example, in the case of plush toys, the company's current monthly production capacity is more than ten times that of the same period last year, approximately 30 million units, and it is still in a phase of continuous expansion. This means that POP MART is shifting from manufacturing scarcity to meeting demand. Sales and marketing strategies are also being adjusted simultaneously. In the past, limited releases, phased deliveries, and creating a buying frenzy were common practices in the industry. However, since the beginning of this year, POP MART has significantly weakened this routine, opting instead for more normalized pre-sales and rolling production, extending the purchase window and reducing instant stimulation. At the same time, the official channels have strengthened all-channel supply, purchase limits, and technical protections to minimize the arbitrage space in the middle. For scalpers, this is almost a structural change. Because the goods in their hands no longer have a time advantage, the official supply may be increased at any time, and the only thing left for them to do is to cash out as quickly as possible. This led to a sell-off, and second-hand prices quickly plummeted in a short period. POP MART founder Wang Ning had actually given a warning earlier. In July of this year, Wang Ning bluntly stated in a media interview: "After September, Labubu's monthly sales may approach 10 million units; the demand worldwide is too large, and we are trying in various ways to prevent it from being maliciously hyped." When the "hype space" is actively compressed, the speculative funds that originally relied on it will naturally choose to withdraw. Deutsche Bank pointed out in a report that to meet the surging demand, Labubu's production capacity has been raised from 10 million units in the first half of the year to an average of 50 million units per month by the end of the year. This move is expected to bring about 14.5 billion RMB in adjusted net profit by 2025. In this sense, the cooling of Labubu is not a passive market fluctuation but an actively triggered "de-bubbling" process. POP MART chooses to exchange capacity and supply for order and long-term scale, which is not aggressive in business logic but inevitably comes at the cost of sacrificing some short-term scarcity premium. As early as the 2024 performance meeting, POP MART's management made their stance clear: "We hope to sell good products, not financial products." When "not being able to buy" is no longer the core of the story, what Labubu carries is only the appeal of the product itself. Especially for a trendy toy company attempting to globalize and establish a long-term presence, this may be the necessary step to take, and the decline in heat is almost a predetermined result. 03 Entering a more stringent scrutiny phase With the sharp increase in shipments, beyond supply, another more direct impact on consumer confidence is the long-criticized quality control issues of POP MART. Paint chipping, crooked heads, rough seams... Complaints about "Labubu's poor quality control" have been continuously appearing on social media platforms. Some consumers described that they had to go through four exchanges just to get a "normally looking" Labubu. Similar issues have also arisen with other IPs from POP MART. For example, the SKULLPANDA dining table series blind boxes have been collectively complained about by consumers for obvious quality control flaws: the brand logo was printed as "POP MAET," with missing letters; the steel stamp was overlapping and unclear. Although POP MART urgently took down the related products afterward, the overall response pace and solutions did not completely quell the controversy. As of the time of reporting, the number of complaints against POP MART on the Black Cat Complaint platform has exceeded 21,000. For a brand that heavily relies on "emotional value," this kind of experiential loss is far more fatal than a price adjustment; it directly shakes consumers' intuitive judgment of "value for money." As the heat begins to wane, the IP itself also enters a more stringent scrutiny phase. Wang Ning once explained the company's core logic using the metaphor of a "cup" at a media communication meeting in March 2025: a cup, by improving production efficiency, can have its price reduced from 100 yuan to 10 yuan, which indicates that Chinese manufacturing is excellent; the same glass cup, with a Labubu printed on it, can be resold for 100 yuan; we collaborate with excellent artists and rely on China's mature manufacturing industry to create new value. However, the premise of this logic is that the IP itself is solid enough. The most typical example is Disney. Behind Disney's IP is a complete worldview and narrative system built by movies and animations, with clear character personalities and emotional connections that can be repeatedly activated. The recent "Zootopia 2" reached a box office of 3.815 billion yuan in just 27 days after its release in China, once again creating a phenomenal heat. In contrast, IPs like Labubu mainly rely on design and celebrity effects, with unclear story backgrounds, character growth lines, and long-term narrative space. Once the novelty fades, the IP is more likely to be pulled back to the realistic dimensions of "workmanship, materials, and pricing," accelerating aesthetic fatigue. POP MART has clearly realized this issue and has begun to "catch up." According to Qichacha, in March of this year, the company registered the copyright for the script of the first season of the animated series "LABUBU and Friends"; in November, there were reports in the industry that Sony Pictures obtained the film adaptation rights for Labubu and plans to develop related series of films, with specific forms still in planning. Although POP MART has not commented on this, Wang Ning revealed to the media in July this year that several Hollywood film companies have actively sought cooperation, "We are still considering whether to do it ourselves, or collaborate with Hollywood, and in what way to do it." However, all IP narratives and content incubation require time. The patience of the market and consumers is undergoing subtle changes. On the evening of November 6th, during a live broadcast at POP MART, a staff member blurted out while showcasing a DIMOO keychain blind box priced at 79 yuan: "Oh my, this thing sells for 79 yuan, which is indeed a bit..." A colleague immediately responded, "It's okay, someone will pay for it." This segment of the live broadcast quickly trended on social media. Soon, some netizens analyzed the material composition of the product, including zinc alloy pendants, polyester lanyards, resin figurines, and glass or acrylic accessories, pointing out that similar imitation products on e-commerce platforms only cost a few yuan. This may have been an unintentional "slip of the tongue," but it precisely hit the emotional pulse of the moment—when even the sellers begin to hesitate about the price itself, the pricing logic built on "emotional premium" is also being re-examined by consumers. 04 Will it become a cultural symbol? Recently, after experiencing supply reversals, price adjustments, and quality control controversies, POP MART welcomed a significant personnel change. On December 10th, POP MART announced that 69-year-old Wu Yue, the president of LVMH Greater China, would replace He Yu, managing partner of Black Ant Capital, as the company's non-executive director for a term of three years. According to disclosed information, Wu Yue will receive a fixed cash salary of HKD 1.2 million per year, along with a share incentive of HKD 1.8 million per year. This is not just an ordinary board adjustment announcement. From Wu Yue's resume, he is almost a "witness" to the luxury goods industry in China. It can be said that compared to manufacturing hit products, Wu Yue is more familiar with how to maintain the sense of brand value, scarcity, and boundaries over a long period. This is precisely the lesson that POP MART currently needs to learn. Morgan Stanley pointed out in its latest research report that Wu Yue's joining the board means that the growth POP MART has experienced over the past two years has created space for it to expand new businesses and attract top resources. More importantly, this sends a signal that POP MART's core IP is being integrated into a broader fashion and entertainment system, and the market's expectations for its brand upgrade and long-term operational capabilities are changing. POP MART also stated that this cross-industry move provides a noteworthy example for how new consumer brands in China can achieve brand elevation and globalization. Although trendy toys and luxury goods seem to belong to two different worlds, they are, in a sense, interconnected: "that is to create beauty, convey beauty, and let the power of beauty be passed down forever." According to industry analyst Zhang Shule, bringing in executives from the luxury goods system is essentially aimed at accelerating POP MART's strategic shift—from a single trendy toy company to a broader trendy cultural platform. This path does not only point to secondary derivative products but may also extend to fashion, clothing, and even more lifestyle areas. Previously, Labubu was frequently used in fashion culture, which has already released a signal that when IP transforms from a decorative item to a displayable and usable symbol, its boundaries are being redefined However, this path is not easy. Zhang Shule also reminded that luxury goods and trendy toys are not simply additive. Trendy toys can quickly become popular through creativity, while luxury goods rely on long-term cultural accumulation and the shaping of consumption habits. If one merely wraps trendy toys in the guise of luxury goods, it is easy to distort their essence. In fact, Labubu's previous large-scale release has, to some extent, exposed that POP MART's grasp of the trend rhythm is still in the exploratory stage. Finding a balance between meeting demand and maintaining restraint is precisely the capability that the luxury goods industry has taken decades to establish. The capital market has already given differentiated expectations. Deutsche Bank maintained a "Hold" rating on POP MART but provided two distinctly different valuation scenarios. In a bear market scenario, if Labubu's popularity declines in 2026 and lacks new IP succession, revenue in the Chinese market may decline by 20% year-on-year, overseas revenue may drop by 10%, and profit margins will be significantly pressured. In a bull market scenario, if the growth momentum continues and new IP successfully emerges, revenue in China could grow by 30%, and overseas growth could reach 50%, leading the company to a new round of valuation reshaping. The gap between these two scenarios is almost the dividing line for POP MART in the next three to five years. In Zhang Shule's view, for POP MART to achieve a true upgrade, it must cross at least three thresholds. First, how to integrate products into a more mature trend system, avoiding a long-term stay in a juvenile aesthetic; second, in cross-border expansion, how to enhance practicality rather than just continue producing ornaments; third, and the most challenging point, how to evolve IP from a single product into a sustainable cultural symbol. Regarding the long-termism of IP, Wang Ning repeatedly mentioned "respect time, respect management" at the media communication conference. In his view, Labubu is about to turn ten, and MOLLY is nearing twenty; as long as there is continuous and healthy investment, the lifecycle of IP is much longer than the market imagines. Unlike traditional IP companies that emphasize boundaries and exclusivity, POP MART has chosen a more open path, collaborating with different artists and pop culture elements to allow IP to be continuously reinterpreted amidst change. For POP MART, the current cooling down may not only be a risk warning but also a necessary calibration period. When trendy toys return from speculative items to consumer goods, and when the heat returns to reality, the real test is no longer the speed of creating hits but whether there is the ability to tell a story for a long time. As long as an IP has been genuinely liked at some point, it has the opportunity to be reawakened at different stages. Wang Ning does not shy away from the company's ups and downs: "The company will sometimes be big and sometimes small, but I believe we may be one of the longest-living companies." Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial conditions, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own risk