BREAKINGVIEWS-India sets the stage for US obesity price war

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.) By Shrabani Chakraborty BENGALURU, Jan 9 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO) is fuelling an obesity drug war in India. Last month, the $229 billion Danish drugmaker launched its blockbuster remedy Ozempic into the world’s fifth-largest economy. The once-weekly jab costs a mere 8,800 rupees ($97.94) per month, a staggering discount compared to the U.S. where the same prescription can cost nearly $500. Competition from arch rival Eli Lilly (LLY.N) and a looming patent cliff will play out on a larger scale in the U.S. in the coming years. India’s obesity levels are rising sharply. In the past three decades, urbanisation encouraged more sedentary lifestyles and diets have shifted towards ultra-processed foods. By 2022, about 24% of India’s population was classified as either overweight or obese, and the situation is expected to get worse. Last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi described obesity as a “silent crisis” and reckoned that it could affect nearly 440 million Indians by 2050, or around a third of today’s 1.4 billion population. To tackle the problem, he urged families to cut 10% of cooking oil use and adopt regular exercise. This healthcare dilemma, however, has created an opportunity for obesity drug giants. In the past year, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have launched Mounjaro and Wegovy, respectively, in the Indian market. But a price war escalated quickly. In March 2025, Mounjaro began selling its injectable drug at 14,000–17,500 rupees per month. Novo Nordisk then followed with Wegovy in June at 10,850 rupees per month. As these drugs gained popularity, Ozempic debuted in December 2025 at 8,800 rupees per month, positioning itself as the most affordable option in India. This pricing strategy is about fending off competition from all angles. Generic drugmakers like Dr. Reddy’s (REDY.NS) and Sun Pharma (SUN.NS) are scrambling to develop copycat versions of Novo’s drugs once the key patent expires in March 2026. But if the Danish group’s drugs are also ultra cheap, the generic rivals are unlikely to take much market share. Novo may need to adopt a similar strategy in the U.S. In 2031, the patent on the key ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy will expire, which is likely to trigger intense competition from generic drugmakers. According to Visible Alpha data, Novo Nordisk’s revenue will dip 0.33% in 2032 and 1.95% in 2033. But if an India-style price war breaks out, the sales decline may be much more dramatic. Investors have good reason to use India’s weight-loss drug showdown as a warning, not an outlier. Follow Shrabani Chakraborty on X and LinkedIn. CONTEXT NEWS Novo Nordisk launched Ozempic in India on December 12, pricing the 0.25 mg dose at $24.35 per week. Ozempic will be sold in pen format in 0.25 mg, 0.5 mg and 1 mg doses, with each pen covering four weekly doses. Monthly prices are 8,800 rupees for 0.25 mg, 10,170 rupees for 0.5 mg and 11,175 rupees for 1 mg doses. The proportion of Indians aged 15-49 who are overweight or obese is rising (Editing by Una Galani; Production by Aditya Srivastav)