<div id="readability-page-1">Reported discussions between Riyadh and Islamabad over a potential deal involving fighter jets co-developed by China and Pakistan could be a “big win” for Beijing’s arms exports to the Gulf region, analysts said.\nHowever, doubts remained over whether such an agreement would actually proceed on the grounds that the JF-17 was in such marked contrast to Saudi Arabia’s Western-centric air force.\nA Reuters report on Thursday that cited two Pakistani sources said Islamabad and Riyadh were in talks for a deal that may convert about US$2 billion of Saudi loans owed by Pakistan into JF-17 fighter jets.\nThe JF-17 is a fourth-generation single-engine multi-role combat aircraft jointly developed by the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and the Chinese Chengdu Aircraft Corporation. It is manufactured in Pakistan.\nOne source quoted by Reuters said the total deal was worth US$4 billion, with discussions limited to the provision of JF-17s and an additional US$2 billion to be spent on equipment over and above the loan conversion. The other source said the jets were the primary option among several under discussion.\n\n\nThe reports of a potential deal that would deepen military cooperation between Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan followed the signing in September of a mutual defence pact between the two countries after Israel’s strikes on Doha.\nThe attacks, which Israel said were aimed at Hamas targets in the Qatari capital, amplified security threats for the Gulf Arab states amid their growing uncertainty about US commitment to the Middle East.\nThe Pakistan Air Force, which has been operating the JF-17 since 2007, has around 120 currently in service. The aircraft has also been exported to Azerbaijan, Myanmar and Nigeria.\nIslamabad’s largest arms deal – worth more than US$4 billion – signed last month with the Libyan National Army, the armed faction that controls Libya’s east, included 16 JF-17 fighters.\nThere have been several upgrades to the JF-17. The latest Block 3 variant, delivered to the Pakistani military in March 2023, features advanced Chinese technology such as the KLJ-7A active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar.\nThe aircraft is also equipped with a more powerful Chinese-made WS-13 engine and a missile approach warning system similar to the one used on the J-10C, J-16 and J-20 Chinese fighter jets.\nThe JF-17, which is compatible with precision-guided munitions and beyond-visual-range missiles like the PL-15, was reportedly deployed during the border clash between India and Pakistan near the Kashmir region in May.\nIndian media reported that a JF-17 was shot down during combat – reports Islamabad denied while claiming that hypersonic missiles launched from a JF-17 had targeted and destroyed an S-400 air defence system in the Indian state of Punjab – a claim New Delhi said was “completely wrong”.\n\n\n\n\nLiselotte Odgaard, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said a potential Saudi purchase of the JF-17 – especially if it was equipped with active AESA radar, electronic warfare components and networked capability – would signal a “strong validation” of Chinese design and technology, reinforcing China’s role in the sales of credible fighter jets.\n“Saudi Arabia is a traditional Western-tilted defence customer, so it would be a big win for China if this deal went through,” she said.\n“The proposed deal also tests the extent to which China can extend its influence through Pakistan’s networks. If it goes through, the deal will challenge US dominance in Gulf security arrangements.”\nOdgaard said the deal served as a “high-impact test case” of whether the JF-17 was competitive in a major Western-aligned market, and if it could strengthen China’s strategic partnership with Pakistan while challenging US influence in Gulf defence procurement.\n“The deal could be a gateway for China to become a major defence supplier in the Middle East, challenging US dominance and creating a new axis of defence cooperation. It is not just about jets – it is about opening doors for a full spectrum of Chinese military technology,” she said.\n“A successful JF-17 deal would break that pattern, signalling that Gulf states are open to Chinese systems. This could pave the way for Chinese drones, air defence systems and naval platforms for regional modernisation programmes.”\n\nJagannath Panda, head of the Stockholm Centre for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs at the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Sweden, said that for China the reported Pakistan-Saudi JF-17 understanding was “less about revenue and more about strategic signalling”.\n“The JF-17 … has long served Beijing as a low-cost, politically flexible export platform – a way to embed Chinese avionics, weapons compatibility and training ecosystems into partner air forces without the diplomatic baggage of high-end systems,” he said.\n“If Saudi Arabia engages even partially – whether through evaluation, limited induction or training – it signals that Chinese-enabled platforms can enter traditionally US-anchored security spaces in the Gulf.”\nHowever, Panda noted that China was also likely to remain cautious, as Riyadh was not a conventional Chinese arms client and Beijing would want to “avoid overtly antagonising Washington or jeopardising its broader Gulf economic equities”.\n“Thus, China benefits indirectly: enhanced prestige of its co-development model, validation of its defence industrial maturity and proof that Sino-Pakistani platforms can be politically palatable beyond South Asia,” he said.\n“Regionally, this strengthens China’s narrative as a system enabler rather than a dominant security patron, allowing Beijing to expand influence quietly while Pakistan acts as the visible interlocutor – buffering China from direct political costs.”\n\nDespite the JF-17’s recent export record, some analysts suggested the deal may not proceed because the Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) was already operating more advanced Western fighter jets.\nAviation analyst Richard Aboulafia, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory, a US consulting firm, said the low-cost JF-17 was less effective than its Western counterparts and was operated primarily by Pakistan.\n“Saudi Arabia only operates very high-end, expensive fighters such as the F-15 and Eurofighter, operated by some of the best air forces in the world,” he said. “There is no chance that the RSAF will get the JF-17. Politics has nothing to do with this.”\nHowever, the potential deal “subtly reshapes” the arms market logic in West Asia, rather than displacing US or European suppliers outright, according to Panda.\nChina appeared to be positioned to “occupy the middle tier [with] affordable, adaptable systems that fill capability gaps, diversify supply chains and reduce dependence on Western political conditionality”.\n“For Gulf states, this opens a hedging pathway. Chinese systems can be trialled without fully committing to Beijing as a primary security guarantor,” Panda said.\n“For China, the payoff is long-term: logistics footprints, training pipelines and weapons compatibility that normalise Chinese standards in the region.”\n\n\nAccording to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Saudi Arabia was the world’s fourth largest arms importer in the five years from 2020 to 2024, with a 6.8 per cent share.\nThe same report, published by SIPRI in March, showed that the United States was Riyadh’s dominant arms supplier, accounting for 74 per cent of Saudi Arabia’s weapons imports.\nNews of the possible JF-17 deal also came after US President Donald Trump said he had approved the sale of F-35s to “great ally” Saudi Arabia, one day before Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to the US in November.\nTrump’s announcement – a departure from previous limits on sales of advanced stealth fighter jets to Middle Eastern countries – was widely seen as part of the Washington-brokered Abraham Accords which promote normalised relations between Israel and other nations, including Saudi Arabia.\nThe F-35 is regarded as the world’s most advanced fighter jet. It has been exported to 12 countries and several others are awaiting delivery – all of them US allies. Israel currently operates 46 of the warplanes.\nIn 2020, during his first term, Trump approved the sale of F-35 jets to the United Arab Emirates after Abu Dhabi agreed to establish formal ties with Israel.\nThe deal fell apart after Joe Biden took office in 2021 over concerns that the increasing military cooperation between the UAE and China could risk a technology security breach involving one of America’s most advanced fighter jets.\nDespite Trump’s approval of F-35 sales to Saudi Arabia, they could still be rejected by a congressional review. US law mandates that Israel maintains a qualitative military edge over its regional adversaries and concerns over a potential security breach remain.\n\n\n\n\nOdgaard noted that the JF-17 offer strengthened Saudi Arabia’s bargaining position and may slow or reshape the F-35 deal by creating US “consternation” over tech security and regional balance, potentially “delaying approval, tightening export conditions and increasing the cost and complexity of the transaction”.\n“Also, Saudi negotiators will likely demand improved configurations, speedier delivery or cost concessions,” she said.\n“The US may align F-35 sales explicitly as a strategic counterbalance to Chinese systems, with added security provisions, such as technical kill-switches and restricted software and hardware features.”\nAccording to Panda, while the direct effects would be limited, the potential JF-17 deal would have indirect political consequences for Saudi Arabia’s procurement of the F-35, a fighter that “remains in a different league – technologically, doctrinally and symbolically”.\n“Saudi Arabia’s interest in the F-35 is tied to elite deterrence, deep intelligence integration with the US and parity with regional competitors. A JF-17-related arrangement does not substitute for this,” he said.\n“However, the signal effect matters. Washington has consistently linked F-35 access to strict conditions: interoperability, information security and restrictions on engagement with Chinese defence technologies,” Panda added.\n“Any visible Saudi openness to Chinese-enabled platforms, even via Pakistan, strengthens US concerns about technology leakage and strategic alignment.”\n</div>

<p>Reported discussions between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan over a potential deal involving JF-17 fighter jets, co-developed by China and Pakistan, could significantly boost China's arms exports to the Gulf region. Analysts express skepticism about the deal's feasibility due to Saudi Arabia's Western-centric air force. The proposed agreement may convert $2 billion of Saudi loans into JF-17 jets, with a total deal value of $4 billion. Experts suggest that if successful, this deal could challenge US dominance in Gulf defense and enhance China's role in military technology sales.</p>

Chinese arms exporters may be the big winners in any Pakistan-Saudi JF-17 talks