Daiwa expects NONGFU SPRING's growth momentum to accelerate in the second half of last year, and this year will still focus on packaged water and tea beverage business

Daiwa published a research report indicating that during a meeting with the management of NONGFU SPRING (09633.HK), the company emphasized that its market share in the packaged water business is rapidly recovering, and the customer retention rate for ready-to-drink tea beverages performed strongly in the fourth quarter of last year. It is expected that the revenue from these two businesses will both grow by 25% year-on-year, driving a 23% year-on-year increase in revenue for the second half of last year and a 28% year-on-year increase in net profit.

Looking ahead, Daiwa expects that as the comparison base normalizes, NONGFU SPRING's compound annual growth rate of net profit will slow from 25% in 2025 to 15% over the next two years.

For this year, Daiwa believes that NONGFU SPRING will continue to focus on the packaged water and ready-to-drink tea beverage businesses to drive growth. With new flavor products and SKU products launched nationwide, the ready-to-drink tea business may maintain revenue growth of over 20% this year; however, it is expected that the revenue growth of the packaged water business will slow from 18% last year to 5% this year, due to the normalization of the comparison base and intensified competition.

Based on the upward revision of last year's sales forecast, Daiwa has raised its earnings per share forecast for NONGFU SPRING by 2% for last year, but maintained its earnings per share forecasts for this year and next year; it reiterated a "Buy" rating but slightly adjusted the 12-month target price from HKD 59 to HKD 58, with a target price-to-earnings ratio of 33 times