This is not science fiction! By 2030, the cost of space data centers will match that of ground-based ones

Sending high-energy-consuming AI computing power into orbit is moving from theoretical discussion to the stage of economic feasibility verification. According to news from the Wind Trading Desk, Deutsche Bank stated in a report on January 14 that although the current cost of space deployment is high, this gap is narrowing at an astonishing rate. Analysts predict that with the plummeting launch costs and optimization of satellite design, the cost of building a space data center will approach parity with ground construction costs within the next decade. This means that the energy and cooling bottlenecks that plague ground data centers may find an ultimate solution in space. Rapid Bridging of the Cost Gap Deutsche Bank's model shows that deploying computing power in space is still an expensive bet, but the turning point is in sight. According to their estimates, the current cost of building a 1 gigawatt (GW) capacity space data center is at least 7 times that of ground facilities. However, this multiple is expected to rapidly narrow to 4 times by the end of this decade and ultimately achieve cost parity in the 2030s. The report noted: This decline in costs is primarily driven by the reduction in launch costs and further optimization of satellite design and energy efficiency, which will significantly reduce the mass required for orbital deployment. Data shows that in the estimated scenario for 2026, the cost of space deployment could reach $114 billion, while ground deployment is only $16 billion, resulting in a difference multiple of 7.2 times. However, under the "2032 optimized scenario," the cost of space deployment will plummet to $18 billion, with only a 1.2 times difference from the ground cost of $16 billion, nearly at parity. Plummeting Launch Costs are Key The core variable for achieving this economic reversal is the dramatic drop in launch costs. The model assumes that the launch cost per kilogram will plummet from $1,600 in 2026 to $67 by 2032. Deutsche Bank emphasized the importance of complete rocket reusability and operational scaling in the report: We assume that the current market price for launches to low Earth orbit (LEO) is about $70 million or $4,000 per kilogram. Over time, if complete rocket reusability and operational scaling are achieved, this cost could significantly drop to $10 million or even below $70 per kilogram. Extreme Optimization of Hardware Specifications In addition to the launch side, the hardware evolution on the orbital side is also aggressive. Deutsche Bank expects that by the 2030s, the cost of a single satellite will drop below $2 million (or only $10,000/kW). This optimized version will be equipped with a 150 kW power system (including solar arrays and thermal management) and will carry 150 custom chips designed specifically for space AI infrastructure, connected via optical laser terminals It is worth noting that this model is not without its blind spots. Deutsche Bank admits that its benchmark is based on the assumption that "ground capacity costs remain unchanged." At the same time, the model primarily compares the deployment costs of infrastructure such as electricity, heat dissipation, and weight, and does not include the expensive procurement costs of GPU/TPU chips. The report warns: If rapid and inexpensive power generation methods (such as nuclear energy) emerge on the ground, this assumption may no longer be realistic. This suggests to investors that the logic of space data centers depends not only on advancements in space technology but also on whether there is a stagnation in the ground energy revolution