United Airlines (UAL) Earnings Tuesday: Transatlantic/Pacific Trends, PRASM, CASM

United Airlines (UAL) is set to report their Q4 and full-year FY2025 results on Tuesday, January 20, after market close.Analyst consensus estimates call for an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.93 on revenue of $15.4 billion for Q4.Q3’s earnings report came in above expectations, and management raised guidance for Q4 during that call.PRASM, CASM, transatlantic and Pacific operations, loyalty economics, and 2026 guidance will be the key factors in this report.Where UAL Stands TodayIn October’s Q3 FY2025 report, United beat EPS expectations by about 5% and met revenue expectations. Management adjusted Q4’s outlook slightly higher, citing momentum from customer loyalty. Their revenue mix has begun to lean more heavily into international and premium options, as Pacific and transatlantic strength have helped offset softer main cabin trends.Key Swing Factors This QuarterInternational vs. Domestic, Premium vs. MainFor all airlines, one of the biggest determinants of revenue is Passenger Revenue per Airline Seat Mile, typically referred to as PRASM. United is no exception, and on this call, investors will be eager to hear how United’s PRASM looks with regards to international vs. domestic flights, and with regards to premium vs. main cabin demand. Management’s guidance on domestic PRASM headed into Q1 will also be a key variable, as stabilization there paired with continued fortitude on long-haul flights would be very bullish for the company.Margins 101: CASM ex-Fuel and ExposureThe offset to PRASM is Cost per Airline Seat Mile, or CASM. Any information from United’s higher-ups on CASM trajectory into Q1 and 2026 as a whole will be critical, along with any guidance on fuel sensitivities. Investors also want to hear details on operational efficiency, and any lingering one-off costs from 2025 that could continue into 2026. United differs from many of their peers in that they do not hedge extensively against fuel costs; how they frame that exposure will matter headed into Q1.Long-Haul Cadence and Network MixAs previously mentioned, international routes were a major driver for UAL in 2025, and any changes to capacity plans for their long-haul franchises would certainly have the propensity to move shares. This impact would become especially pronounced if corporate demand is improving or leisure demand is normalizing. Any commentary on Boeing or Airbus delivery timing, and whether there are spillovers to 2026 schedules, would also fit into this category.MileagePlus: The Loyalty Cash EngineLoyalty economics are also an important piece for United, along with all of their peers. Management indicated in their Q3 report that customer loyalty was a major revenue driver, and any updates on MileagePlus cash flows, card remuneration, and redemption behavior could help to cushion the inherently cyclical nature of their revenue. Q4’s loyalty numbers, as well as any direction for 2026, could incite a move in share price.Building the 2026 BridgeFinally, as is true with all companies headed into every new year, 2026 guidance will be very important. Investors will want to hear about the initial 2026 EPS and free cash flow framework, as well as the capital expenditure and leverage goals for the new year. If management gives guidance that indicates a clear bridge from Q4, it would help the stock, especially if international strength persists and domestic trends show signs of stability.Reading UAL Through the DAL LensWith Delta having already reported their Q4 FY2025 earnings this week, it’s easy to assume that United may have already priced in some of the information that is to come. While the two companies share some major similarities, there are also some key differences between them that are worth noting headed into UAL’s report.The two main similarities lie in revenue mix and cost controls; both are leaning on international strength, along with premium and corporate demand, to support PRASM into early 2026. Additionally, both are laser-focused on cost control and margin guardrails, with fuel as a key macro swing factor.The two main differences are the biggest leverage spots and fuel sourcing; Delta’s main lever is their loyalty cash engine via American Express, while United’s is outsized long-haul exposure in the Atlantic and Pacific. As far as fuel, Delta is heavily intertwined with Monroe refinery dynamics, while United is more directly exposed to spot fuel.While PRASM and CASM persist, leverage and fuel sourcing differentiate Delta from United, and investors should be wary of assuming that the latter will have the same post-earnings trajectory as the former.Gus Downingis host of the tastylive Network showRisk and Reward. @GainsByGusFor live daily programming, market news and commentary, visittastyliveor thetastyliveYouTube channel.Trade with a better broker,open a tastytrade accounttoday. tastylive Inc. and tastytrade Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.