"Large Banks" Research: CMOC's profits are stable, raising the target price to 22.8 yuan and continuing to recommend "Hold"

HSBC's research report indicates that CMOC (03993.HK) has issued a profit warning, expecting its net profit after tax in 2025 to grow by 47.8% year-on-year to between RMB 20 billion and RMB 20.8 billion, exceeding the bank's expectations, based on increased sales, improved pricing, and ongoing cost control. According to the median guidance, the profit for the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be around RMB 6 billion, representing an increase of approximately 14.4% year-on-year and 7.2% quarter-on-quarter. The copper production in 2025 is projected to reach 741,000 tons, surpassing the company's guidance and the bank's expectations.

The bank maintains its expectation that copper prices will remain high in 2026 due to ongoing market shortages. Considering the stronger earnings base and more positive copper price outlook, the target price for CMOC's H shares has been raised from HKD 18.6 to HKD 22.8, and the target price for CMOC's A shares (603993.SH) has been increased from RMB 18.2 to RMB 22.4, maintaining a "Hold" rating, as recent stock price increases have limited short-term catalysts, and the current valuation reflects the company's robust operational performance and long-term growth prospects, although strong copper sales will support the stock price