According to HSBC Research in "The Big Banks," Brent crude oil is expected to hover around $60 per barrel this year, easily influenced by geopolitical factors

HSBC's research report indicates that by 2026, the crude oil market will be influenced by multiple geopolitical factors and threats of oversupply. As onshore inventories have not yet reflected the oversupply issue, crude oil prices remain susceptible to geopolitical factors, such as the current turmoil in Iran, although the increase is limited; if supply remains uninterrupted, fundamental factors will eventually reassert control over the market.

Unless there is a significant supply disruption, the bank expects Brent crude prices to hover around the level of over $60 per barrel this year, potentially even falling below the $60 mark, but geopolitical factors should repeatedly push it higher. The bank maintains its forecast for Brent crude prices to be $65 per barrel in 2026 and beyond