Morning Trend | ABC shrinks volume and consolidates, is the bottom rebound window coming?

As of the market close on January 20, Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK) showed a relatively sluggish atmosphere, with the large bank sector overall turning downward. Risk-averse funds quickly flowed out of the market, leading to a sharp decline in enthusiasm for financial weight allocation. This round of adjustment has covered nearly all mainstream bank stocks, with investors focusing on the support area at 3.10 yuan below, and short-term funds showing increasingly obvious wait-and-see sentiment. During the trading session, Agricultural Bank of China tested the rebound several times but did not see significant buying activity, indicating a clear lack of active funds. It is worth mentioning that regulators recently issued documents requiring banks to strictly control credit issuance and capital adequacy ratio supervision, which has put certain pressure on the market. Many institutional investors are concerned that industry profitability may be further pressured. From a technical perspective, the daily MACD continues to weaken, and the short-term moving averages (5-day, 10-day) are collectively pressing down, reflecting that bullish buying has not yet sustained. Overall trading volume remains low, with significant signs of outflow of main funds. In terms of the macro environment, the banking sector is affected by both policy and fundamentals, compounded by the recent rise in discussions about real estate and local government bonds, which has suppressed risk appetite. Investors are continuously paying attention to signals of policy shifts. If the stock price can gradually stabilize around 3.10 yuan and successfully increase in volume, it is expected to become a new focus of attention. Conversely, if trading volume and sector performance continue to weaken, the possibility of further downward testing of lows cannot be ruled out. From an operational perspective, it is recommended to closely monitor the intraday fund flow and marginal changes in news, as the subsequent reactions of main funds and technical repair signals are prerequisites for a rebound window