The research team of CITIC Construction Investment Securities in the electrical power and new energy industry (analysts: Zhu Yue et al.) recently reported that under the impact of soaring silver prices, photovoltaic electrode technology is initiating a &#34;copper replaces silver&#34; revolution. Since the beginning of 2024, the spot silver price has increased by over 200%, causing the cost share of photovoltaic silver paste to surge from 3.4% to 19.3%, replacing silicon materials as the largest cost item in components.
The report believes that this cost crisis is forcing the industry to accelerate technological substitution. Companies mastering copper replacement technology and metal powder suppliers will see significant performance elasticity. Calculations show that if the penetration rates of silver-coated copper and pure copper paste reach 17.7% and 43% respectively by 2026-2027, it could bring about RMB 320 million and RMB 730 million in incremental profit space for the paste industry, while the net profit attributable to the parent company of leading paste companies in the first three quarters of 2025 is only in the range of RMB 29 million to RMB 239 million, indicating significant growth potential.
At the same time, downstream battery and component companies that can first achieve cost reduction in the metallization process will also establish competitive advantages in the industry's cost reshaping and reshuffling process. This material revolution driven by &#34;copper replaces silver&#34; is reconstructing the profit distribution pattern of the photovoltaic industry chain.
<h2>Long-term Tight Balance of Silver Supply and Demand Has Become a Foregone Conclusion</h2>
Since 2019, the silver market has been in a state of supply-demand gap, with structural contradictions becoming increasingly prominent. The supply side lacks elasticity: over 80% of the supply comes from mining, of which about 72% are by-products of metals such as copper, lead, zinc, and gold, with independent silver mines accounting for only 28%, and generally facing challenges of declining grades and rising mining costs; although recycling is growing, its contribution remains relatively limited.
The report states that the demand side has long-term growth momentum. In the silver demand structure of 2024, photovoltaic accounts for 17.6%. Although the industry is constrained by absorption capacity in the short term, with the increase in energy storage and gradual upgrades to the grid, the demand for silver in photovoltaics will return to a growth trajectory. At the same time, the trend of artificial intelligence computing infrastructure and automotive electrification continues to drive the use of silver in the industrial sector, further exacerbating the tight supply-demand situation.
<h2>Dual Price Increases Intensify Cost Pressure</h2>
Since 2024, the photovoltaic industry chain has been under continuous pressure from the dual squeeze of overcapacity and soaring costs. Recently, the simultaneous rise in silicon material and silver prices has further worsened the profit margins in the battery and component sectors. Previously, Wall Street Journal mentioned that for every RMB 1,000 increase in silver price per kilogram, the cost per watt of battery cells increases by 0.01 RMB, posing direct survival pressure on photovoltaic manufacturing companies that are in a marginal profit state.
As an irreplaceable key material in components, the cost reduction potential of silicon materials has been deeply explored during the high-price cycle in previous years, while the cost share of silver has jumped to the top, making the reduction of silver consumption an urgent cost-cutting focus for the entire industry.
Currently, the silver consumption of TOPCon batteries is generally in the range of 10-13 mg/W. If the price of silver paste remains high at RMB 10,000 per kilogram, the paste cost alone will reach RMB 0.10-0.13 per watt. Such significant cost pressure has quickly transmitted to the end market
Recently, domestic component manufacturers collectively announced price increases, with a rise of 1.4% to 3.8%. The average price of mainstream 500-watt components has rebounded to about 400 RMB, reflecting that upstream cost pressures are reshaping the pricing system of the entire industry chain.
<h2>Copper Replacement Technology Route Gradually Maturing</h2>
Copper, as the most promising material to replace silver, faces technical challenges such as easy oxidation and diffusion. However, the PCB, MLCC, and semiconductor industries have accumulated relevant process experience that can be referenced by the photovoltaic industry. The report points out that the photovoltaic industry is currently advancing the copper replacement process mainly through three technical routes: copper-clad silver, electroplated copper, and pure copper paste.
1. Copper-Clad Silver Solution Progressing the Fastest
Low-temperature copper-clad silver technology has been validated on heterojunction (HJT) cells, using paste with a silver content of 30%-50% to achieve a reduction in metallization costs of about 0.15 RMB/watt. For TOPCon cells, the industry has proposed a &#34;secondary printing + secondary sintering&#34; process scheme, which first forms a very thin silver seed layer through high-temperature printing, and then overlays low-temperature copper-clad silver grid lines. This process does not require large-scale new equipment investment, and leading companies have already initiated gigawatt-level production line transformations. Based on current silver prices, applying this solution only to the back of TOPCon cells can reduce metallization costs by about 0.045 RMB/watt.
2. Electroplated Copper Costs Relatively High
This technology is essentially a simplified version of semiconductor processes, and the leading BC cell manufacturers have fully adopted it at their Jinan base. However, its main constraint is the high equipment investment, with unit capacity investment reaching 100-200 million RMB/GW.
3. Pure Copper Paste Still in R&amp;D Stage
Pure copper paste technology is currently still in the R&amp;D stage, with the core challenge being how to control copper oxidation during the high-temperature sintering process.
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial conditions, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at one's own risk.

600362

601012

600438

300118

CITIC Construction Investment Securities report points out that the surge in silver prices has led to a "copper replacing silver" revolution in photovoltaic electrode technology, with the cost proportion of photovoltaic silver paste sharply increasing. It is expected that the penetration rate of silver-coated copper and pure copper paste will significantly increase in 2026-2027, bringing considerable profits to the paste industry. The long-term supply and demand of silver is in a tight balance, with the proportion of photovoltaic demand increasing year by year. Although it is constrained in the short term, it will return to a growth trajectory in the future. The photovoltaic industry chain is facing dual price increase pressures, further deteriorating profit margins

Wallstreetcn

JCCL

LONGi

Tongwei Co.,Ltd

Risen Energy

Silver prices soar, forcing technological substitution, as photovoltaic electrodes enter the "copper era"