Bill Gates Says The World Went 'Backwards' — But Next 5 Years Could Decide If We Slide Toward a 'New Dark Age'

Bill Gates has spent most of his life betting on progress. But this year, the Microsoft co-founder admits it's getting harder to see the bright side. In his annual letter posted earlier this month on GatesNotes, the billionaire philanthropist reflected on what he calls "a key metric of progress" going in reverse: for the first time this century, the number of deaths of children under five years old increased. "The thing I am most upset about," he wrote, "is the fact that the world went backwards last year… from 4.6 million in 2024 to 4.8 million in 2025." Gates blames shrinking global aid budgets—especially from wealthy nations—for stalling what had been a decades-long streak of historic improvement. He warned that "this trend will continue unless we make progress in restoring aid budgets," and cautioned, "the next five years will be difficult as we try to get back on track and work to scale up new lifesaving tools." Don't Miss: The AI Marketing Platform Backed by Insiders from Google, Meta, and Amazon — Invest at $0.85/Share Sam Altman Says AI Will Transform the Economy — This Platform Lets Investors Back Private Tech Early Still, he's not ready to declare the end of global progress. "As hard as last year was, I don't believe we will slide back into the Dark Ages," he wrote. "I believe that, within the next decade, we will not only get the world back on track but enter a new era of unprecedented progress." Gates credits that outlook to one word: innovation. Breakthroughs Don't Vanish—But Budgets Can Using HIV as his example, Gates pointed to one of the most dramatic public health reversals in modern memory. "An HIV diagnosis used to be a death sentence," he wrote. "Today… a person with HIV can expect to live almost as long as someone without the virus." He added that new preventatives can reduce the risk of contracting the virus by up to 99%. But here's the catch: these tools only work when they're funded, distributed, and scaled globally. "Budget cuts limit how many people benefit from lifesaving tools, as we saw to devastating effect last year," he wrote. That kind of backslide, he said, isn't just tragic—it's avoidable. A Footnoted Optimism Throughout the letter, Gates stressed that his optimism isn't naïve—it's conditional. "These days, my optimism comes with footnotes," he said, listing three hard questions the world must answer if it wants to avoid sliding further off track. Rather than dump the full list, he focused heavily on generosity—particularly from the wealthy. Gates challenged fellow billionaires to give more, and not just symbolically. "More needs to be done to encourage higher levels of generosity from the rich and to show how fulfilling and impactful it can be," he said. Trending: It’s no wonder Jeff Bezos holds over $250 million in art — this alternative asset has outpaced the S&P 500 since 1995, delivering an average annual return of 11.4%. Here’s how everyday investors are getting started. He emphasized that even modest cuts in foreign aid come with staggering consequences. "If funding for health decreases by 20%, 12 million more children could die by 2045," he wrote in the letter. Gates says he plans to spend much of the year engaging with diaspora communities, faith leaders, and healthcare workers to advocate for children's health funding. And while he avoided naming any government specifically, the implication was clear: the richest countries are dragging their feet. Innovation Isn't Enough—It Has to Be Fair Gates isn't shy about his excitement over artificial intelligence. He says the next wave of AI breakthroughs could bring personalized learning, scalable medical advice, and even climate-smart tools to smallholder farmers. But none of it matters if access stays locked behind borders or price tags. "Despite so much progress, the cost and complexity of the system means very few people are satisfied with their care," he wrote, describing how AI could reduce pressure on overstretched healthcare systems—if implemented thoughtfully. The Gates Foundation, he said, is already piloting AI tools in underserved areas and working to support African language access to ensure no region is left out. And in education? He believes AI can finally deliver on the promise of tailored instruction. "AI gives us a chance for the kind of personalized learning… we have dreamed of in the past," he said. See Also: Why Billionaires Like Warren Buffett Prefer Real Assets Over Speculation—Institutional Real Estate Is Now Accessible to Individuals The Real Threat Isn't AI—It's What People Do With It What keeps Gates up at night isn't Skynet—it's sabotage. "An even greater risk than a naturally caused pandemic is that a non-government group will use open source AI tools to design a bioterrorism weapon," he warned. That, he argued, is the kind of scenario policymakers must plan for now—not later. He also flagged job disruption as the more immediate fallout. Developers may already feel the shift. "Even with this complexity, the rate of improvement is already starting to be enough to disrupt job demand," he wrote, adding that the next five years will likely bring similar upheaval across warehouse and support roles. But Gates isn't arguing for fear. He's arguing for planning. Why He's Still Not Giving Up The final paragraphs of the letter turn back to what he calls "two core human capabilities": foresight and care. "Throughout history," he wrote, "you can always find stories of people tending not just to themselves or their clan or their country but to the greater good." That, Gates says, is the foundation of his remaining optimism—not blind hope, but belief in our ability to care, coordinate, and course-correct. "As long as we keep exercising those abilities," he wrote, "I believe the years ahead can be ones of real progress." Read Next: Americans With a Financial Plan Can 4X Their Wealth — Get Your Personalized Plan from a CFP Pro Image: Shutterstock