Market Review: Hang Seng Index Preferred, Gold and Real Estate Stocks Favored, Tech Index Drops Over 1%

The US Dollar Index weakened as the market awaited the earnings reports of major US companies this week. The Hang Seng Index today (26th) fluctuated with a slight preference. Earlier, the market speculated that Japanese authorities might intervene in the exchange rate, with the US dollar against the Japanese yen recently down 1.1% to 153.97. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq fell 0.6% and rose 0.3% respectively last Friday (23rd). At the time of writing, the yield on the US 2-year Treasury bond fell to 3.586%, and the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond fell to 4.211%, while the US Dollar Index dropped to 97.12. The Dow futures rose 12 points or 0.02%, while the Nasdaq futures fell 16 points or 0.07%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3 points or 0.09% to close at 4,132 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.9%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.9%, with a total trading volume of 3.24 trillion yuan in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets.

The Hang Seng Index opened 94 points higher but fluctuated, at one point falling 129 points to a low of 26,619 points, then rising 161 points to a high of 26,911 points, closing up 16 points or less than 0.1% at 26,765 points. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 13 points or 0.15% to close at 9,147 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 72 points or 1.2% to close at 5,725 points. The total market turnover for the day was 261.699 billion yuan. The total turnover of northbound trading was 114.535 billion yuan, while southbound funds had a net outflow of 830 million yuan today (following a net outflow of 1.6 billion yuan on the previous trading day), marking two consecutive days of net outflow.

The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800.HK) rose 0.07% to close at 26.98 yuan, with a turnover of 17.12 billion yuan. Some tech and chip stocks weakened, with Alibaba (09988.HK) down nearly 2% to close at 165.2 yuan, with a turnover of 11.255 billion yuan. Baidu (09888.HK) fell 3.1%, SMIC (00981.HK) dropped 3.3%, and Tianxu Zhixin (09903.HK) plummeted nearly 7.7%. However, oil stocks performed well, with CNOOC (00883.HK) rising 4%.

【Alibaba and Baidu Weak, Gold Prices Rise】

Spot gold and silver prices further reached new highs during the Asian session, with spot gold at one point surpassing 5,100 USD per ounce, currently reported at 5,091 USD, up 2.2%. Spot silver reached a high of 110.08 USD per ounce, currently up 6.2% at 109.3 USD.

Gold and silver stocks were favored. China Silver Group (00815.HK) rose 19.1%, China Gold International (02099.HK) rose 8.1%. Shandong Gold (01787.HK) and Lingbao (03330.HK) rose over 4%. Zijin (02899.HK) saw its stock price rise 4.4%. Resource stocks such as Jiexin International Resources (03858.HK), Nanshan Aluminum International (02610.HK), Innovation Industry (02788.HK), Minmetals Resources (01208.HK), Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK), and Chalco (02600.HK) rose between 3% and 5.1%, while Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) rose 6.3%, and Xingfa Aluminum (00098.HK) rose 8% Gold jewelry retailers Lao Pu Gold (06181.HK) and Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) saw their stock prices rise by 7.8% and 2.9% respectively throughout the day. According to reports from domestic media, as the Year of the Horse Spring Festival approaches, major shopping malls across the country have begun large-scale Spring Festival activities. On the first day of the Spring Festival event at SKP, long queues were seen at Lao Pu Gold stores in Beijing, Xi'an, Chengdu, and Wuhan, with this year's queue situation surpassing last year's. On the morning of January 24, reporters at Beijing SKP learned that dozens of people had started queuing overnight on January 23; by 10 AM on January 24, when the SKP opened, the mall had stopped issuing queue numbers for Lao Pu Gold, having distributed approximately 400 to 500 numbers in total.

【Market Width Weakens, Real Estate Stocks Favored】

The Hong Kong stock market width has weakened, with the rise and fall ratio of main board stocks at 23 to 29 (compared to 29 to 22 the previous day), and 1,196 stocks declining (a drop of nearly 2.7%). Today, 46 stocks in the Hang Seng Index rose, while 39 fell, with a rise and fall ratio of 52 to 44 (previously 54 to 44). The market recorded short selling of HKD 37.422 billion today, accounting for 17.155% of the total turnover of HKD 218.143 billion for shortable stocks.

Local real estate stocks are favored, with New World Development (00016.HK) rising 3.9% to HKD 119, Cheung Kong Holdings (01113.HK) up 3.1% to HKD 45.36, and Sun Hung Kai Properties (00083.HK) increasing by 3%. Citigroup published a research report indicating that investors have a positive attitude towards Hong Kong real estate based on feedback, with the priority order by industry being real estate developers > Central office buildings > luxury retail; while non-essential retail has been disappointing.

Citigroup stated that investors expect property prices to enter a rising cycle this year; they are concerned about sustainability in 2027 and 2028, and investors unanimously believe that property prices have passed the turning point, with an expected significant increase of 5% to 10% this year. Nevertheless, about 10% of investors are skeptical about the property price trends in 2027/2028, as the rebound in transaction volume is mainly driven by pent-up demand; investment demand (currently accounting for about 10% to 15% of market share) depends on rental yields and capital markets