OPEC+ representative: Production increase may continue to be halted in March, crude oil supply has not been significantly affected by geopolitical factors

On January 26, according to media reports citing multiple representatives from OPEC+, the organization is expected to decide to maintain its current production policy at the monthly meeting scheduled for this Sunday, with a continued halt on production increases likely in March. In the face of a structurally oversupplied global oil market and the complex environment of geopolitical tensions in various regions, OPEC+ is highly likely to adhere to the production freeze arrangement announced for the first quarter last November. Core member countries Saudi Arabia and Russia will lead this video conference to review the relevant resolutions. Since the beginning of this year, supported by geopolitical risks and supply fluctuations from some oil-producing countries, Brent crude oil prices have slightly risen, hovering around $65 per barrel on Monday. However, the current oil price is only about $1 higher than when OPEC+ announced the "halt on production increases" in early November last year, highlighting the fragile balance in the market between seasonal demand slowdown and supply adjustments. Geopolitical Risks Have Not Affected Supply Recently, large-scale protests have occurred in Iran and have been met with a strong response, but so far, they have not affected the country's oil production. According to CCTV News, protests erupted in Iran due to rising prices and currency devaluation, leading to unrest in multiple locations and resulting in casualties. The Iranian Supreme National Security Council stated on the 9th that these protests have evolved into a threat to national security, orchestrated and controlled by the United States and Israel. Meanwhile, after the Trump administration forcibly took control of former leader Maduro, Venezuela's crude oil has resumed exports to Europe for the first time in nearly a year to help revive its economy. According to CCTV News, on January 14 local time, a U.S. government official revealed that the first batch of Venezuelan oil sales has been completed. This transaction is valued at $500 million, and the official added that more oil sales are expected in the coming days and weeks. One representative clearly stated that there are currently no signs indicating a need for a policy response to the turmoil in member countries. However, another representative added that if a significant supply disruption occurs, OPEC+ may still take measures to increase production.