Cathay Pacific Airways (SEHK:293) Valuation Check After Strong Passenger And Cargo Recovery

Operating results put Cathay Pacific Airways (SEHK:293) in focus Cathay Pacific Airways (SEHK:293) has attracted fresh attention after reporting December 2025 and full year traffic figures, with double digit year on year growth in both passenger volumes and cargo tonnage. See our latest analysis for Cathay Pacific Airways. The HK$12.58 share price has been supported by an 11.72% 90 day share price return and a 27.65% 1 year total shareholder return, suggesting momentum has been building around the recovery in passenger and cargo activity. If Cathay Pacific’s rebound has caught your eye, you may wish to compare it with other aviation names through aerospace and defense stocks. With HK$12.58 per share, a 51.10% intrinsic discount figure and a strong recent share price run, the key question is whether Cathay Pacific still trades below its underlying value or if markets are already pricing in future growth. Most Popular Narrative: 11.7% Overvalued The most followed narrative pegs Cathay Pacific Airways’ fair value at HK$11.26 per share, compared with the HK$12.58 last close, and builds its case around traffic recovery, margins and capital spending. The analysts have a consensus price target of HK$10.378 for Cathay Pacific Airways based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of HK$13.2, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just HK$8.2. Read the complete narrative. Want to see what sits behind that spread in outcomes? The narrative leans on measured revenue growth, slightly tighter margins and a higher future earnings multiple. The exact mix of those inputs is what drives the HK$11.26 figure. Result: Fair Value of HK$11.26 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, if fleet upgrades and global network expansion lift earnings, or cargo growth proves more resilient, that could challenge the idea that Cathay Pacific is already overpriced. Find out about the key risks to this Cathay Pacific Airways narrative. Another View: Earnings Multiple Sends A Different Signal While the HK$11.26 fair value points to Cathay Pacific as 11.7% overvalued, the current P/E of 8.6x tells a different story. It sits well below the Asian Airlines industry at 10.3x, the peer average at 25.9x, and an estimated fair ratio of 10.8x, which together suggest the market is pricing in a fair amount of uncertainty. The question is whether you think that discount reflects real long term risk or leaves room for a re rating if the recovery holds. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. SEHK:293 P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 Build Your Own Cathay Pacific Airways Narrative If you do not agree with this view or prefer to rely on your own analysis, you can quickly build a custom thesis with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Cathay Pacific Airways research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Cathay Pacific has sharpened your interest, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to uncover other angles your portfolio might be missing. Spot potential turnaround stories by checking out these 3520 penny stocks with strong financials that pair tiny share prices with more robust underlying financials. Position yourself for long term themes by scanning these 14 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that focus on established cash returns to shareholders. Hunt for mispriced opportunities using these 18 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks that track companies tied to digital assets and blockchain infrastructure. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.