Under the banner of "Big Banks," the target price for SANDS CHINA LTD has been lowered to 23 yuan, with last season's property EBITDA falling below market expectations

Citi published a report stating that Sands China (01928.HK) announced its fourth-quarter performance last year, which generally met the bank's expectations. Net revenue increased by 16% year-on-year to USD 2.058 billion (up 8% quarter-on-quarter), and property EBITDA grew by 6% year-on-year to USD 608 million (up 1% quarter-on-quarter), which was roughly in line with the bank's original forecast of USD 616 million but 3% lower than the market consensus expectation of USD 628 million. Adjusting for lucky factors, last quarter's property EBITDA would be USD 582 million. The adjusted EBITDA profit margin decreased by approximately 3.9 percentage points year-on-year to about 28.9%.

The bank cited Sands China's management during the analysis conference call, mentioning that the company incurred significant expenses due to events (the bank believes that the NBA China Games and the 15th National Games accounted for most of this), leading to a year-on-year decline of 2.7 percentage points in EBITDA profit margin (29.5% for Q4 2025; 32.2% for Q4 2024). Considering the aforementioned events and the less-than-ideal revenue mix from VIP and mass markets during the quarter, the bank believes that the reported EBITDA profit margin indicates Sands China is still doing well in controlling operating expenses.

Citi expects higher event-related expenses to recur for Sands China over the next four years (2026 to 2029) but remains confident that Sands China's EBITDA profit margin can reach a lower range of low 30%. The bank reiterated its "Buy" rating but lowered the target price from HKD 24.25 to HKD 23, based on a comprehensive valuation approach.

Citi quoted Sands China's management during the analysis conference call, stating that the win rate in the mid-game decreased by approximately 140 basis points, promotional efforts have stabilized, and further optimization will be sought in 2026