"Big Banks" UBS: Sands China Q4 EBITDA below expectations, rating "Neutral"

UBS published a research report stating that Las Vegas Sands (LVS) announced an adjusted EBITDA of USD 608 million for its Macau properties in Q4 2025, representing an annual growth of approximately 6%. If the betting rate in the VIP room is adjusted, the EBITDA would be USD 582 million, lower than the market consensus forecast of USD 628 million. The profit margin for this quarter was below expectations, primarily reflecting increased costs and a revenue structure tilted towards the lower-margin high-end segment.

UBS stated that management reiterated its goal of achieving an annual EBITDA of USD 2.7 billion for its Macau properties, which will be supported by improvements in asset utilization. Management believes that improvements in marketing plans and the launch of new facilities since Q2 have driven gaming revenue growth in the right direction and will focus on optimizing promotional efficiency in 2026. Management pointed out that per capita spending in the mass market segment has remained stagnant, and the tilt towards the high-end segment may affect its margin structure. The firm assigned Sands China (01928.HK) a "Neutral" rating with a target price of HKD 22.4