Morning Trend | GUOTAI JUNAN I's main force hedges, can the support at 2.64 yuan hold?

Guotai Junan International (1788.HK) closed on January 30th with a stagnant market atmosphere, as major funds chose to remain on the sidelines. Recently, the Hong Kong stock brokerage sector has continued to weaken, and the several waves of rebounds constructed at the beginning of the year have not been effectively sustained. Market liquidity continues to shrink, and traditional funds prefer to avoid risk sectors. HKD 2.64 has become a critical point of focus during trading, with many short-term traders watching to see if a new defensive line will form here. Currently, there are no substantial positive factors for the brokerage sector, and international major banks have been continuously downgrading industry ratings, leading to overall low market sentiment in Hong Kong stocks. Coupled with continuous outflows of foreign capital, the "buying pressure" has significantly decreased. During trading, there is often only small-scale volume when prices approach key levels, and at this time, the downward momentum is usually stronger. From a technical perspective, the daily structure remains under bearish control, with the MACD crossing below the zero line, and short-term moving averages suppressing the K-line to continue its downward search for a bottom. The intraday capital flow is primarily outflow, with occasional technical corrections that are difficult to reverse the downward trend. Right-side traders are focused on whether the main force will launch a counterattack at critical positions, which will be key for subsequent operations. There is considerable short-term risk, especially if HKD 2.64 is broken with increased volume, which could trigger a new round of panic in the market. Before any obvious positive news emerges, it is recommended to dynamically track the policy environment and signals of major fund reallocations, being cautious of sudden negative news that could invalidate technical signals. Investors should pay close attention to intraday anomalies and marginal changes in regulatory and industry policies, combining technical, volume-price, and capital dynamic signals for risk control, and avoid blindly chasing rebounds