In "The Big Banks," Citigroup lowers the target price for Great Wall Motor to 15 yuan and maintains an "Outperform" rating

Citi published a research report indicating that Great Wall Motor (02333.HK)(601633.SH) announced preliminary performance for 2025, with revenue growing 10% year-on-year, but net profit declining 22% year-on-year. Year-end bonus provisions may impact fourth-quarter net profit by approximately RMB 3 billion. Excluding the delayed tax refund impact from scrapped vehicles in Russia, the bank estimates that fourth-quarter profit per vehicle could increase by about RMB 2,000 to RMB 10,500 quarter-on-quarter.

Looking ahead to 2026, the bank expects Great Wall's domestic sales to be affected by weakened domestic demand, while the impact from the Russian market may persist. Therefore, it has lowered the net profit forecasts for Great Wall Motor for 2026 and 2027 by 19% and 3%, respectively, and reduced the target price-to-earnings ratio, lowering the target price for H shares from RMB 21 to RMB 15, and for A shares from RMB 36 to RMB 24. However, the bank maintains an "outperform" rating, as it expects Great Wall to remain resilient amid industry fluctuations