Where has AI e-commerce reached?

We are at a critical turning point in e-commerce, marking the dawn of the so-called "agent commerce" era. Morgan Stanley believes that this trend is not just empty hype, but is transforming into tangible trading data. Although the current adoption rate seems slow, the underlying logic is being restructured. According to the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Morgan Stanley's latest research report on February 1st points out that for investors, the most critical number is: it is expected that by 2030, the total merchandise transaction volume (GMV) of agent commerce will reach approximately $190 billion (base scenario) to $385 billion (optimistic scenario). In other words, by then, 10% to 20% of the share in the U.S. e-commerce market will be driven by AI agents. The current market landscape presents a "dual-track" competition: on one side are the general large model platforms represented by ChatGPT and Gemini, which have a large traffic and young user base; on the other side are the specialized AI tools launched by retail giants like Amazon and Walmart, which, although have a smaller user base, boast extremely high conversion rates. For targets like Google, Amazon, Meta, and Walmart, whoever can seize users' minds and payment gateways in this early stage will gain significant excess returns in the next five years. Large model platform penetration approaching 50%, young groups are the absolute main force The research report indicates that the penetration rate of general AI platforms is steadily rising. As of January 2026, the monthly usage rates of ChatGPT and Gemini reached 47% and 33%, respectively, showing slight growth from 45% and 32% in October 2025. Although this growth is not explosive, it demonstrates an irreversible trend. More critically, there is a generational difference. ChatGPT dominates among young groups, with usage rates exceeding 65% to 75% among those aged 16-34. In contrast, Gemini's growth mainly comes from the 35-44 age group. This "age gap" is a clear strategic signal for Google: if it does not quickly bridge the product gap among young users, its user base may face the risk of loss in the coming years. From "chatting" to "trading": the conversion rate of commercial behavior is surprising The question investors are most concerned about is: Are people really using AI to shop? The data from the research report provides a positive answer. Current commercial behaviors show a high degree of stability. Approximately 40% to 55% of AI platform users are utilizing these tools for product research and price comparison. More importantly, about 30% to 40% of agent users ultimately completed a purchase. This is a highly explosive early signal. If we convert this ratio to the penetration rate across the entire U.S. population, it means that in just the past month, about 18% of Americans have completed shopping through ChatGPT, and about 10% have shopped through Gemini. Considering that the current product forms are still in their early stages, this early purchasing penetration rate indicates significant growth potential in the future. Retailers' Counterattack: Small Base, High Conversion Although general large models occupy the traffic high ground, retail giants have not sat idly by. Walmart's Sparky, Amazon's Rufus, and Target's shopping assistant currently have a monthly user penetration rate at a low double-digit level, far below general platforms, but their users have a strong purchasing intent. Research data shows that the purchasing conversion behavior of retailer-specific agent tools reaches or even exceeds that of general platforms. This indicates that for Amazon and Walmart, the opportunity lies in leveraging their large existing user base to increase the consumption frequency and average transaction value of core users through AI tools. As long as they can promote the popularity of agent tools, they can effectively regain the initiative from general platforms. Category Landscape: Grocery and Fast-Moving Consumer Goods as the "Trojan Horse" In specific consumer categories, high-frequency consumer goods are becoming the breakthrough point for AI e-commerce. Data shows that among users shopping through AI platforms, 50% purchased groceries, a ratio that has remained stable since October last year. Household goods and personal care products follow closely behind. This is a very critical strategic pivot. Morgan Stanley believes that the grocery category will be the largest unlocking area for agent commerce in the next five years. Whoever masters the high-frequency grocery entry will master user habits. 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