Macquarie: Optimistic about POP MART's potential to expand into overseas markets, reiterates "Outperform" rating

POP MART (09992.HK) announced that in 2025, the group's global sales of all IP and all product categories will exceed 400 million units, of which THE MONSTERS product category will exceed 100 million units in global sales. Macquarie published a research report stating that although POP MART has not disclosed the specific structure of the 400 million units sold, the firm believes that the proportion of plush toys (which typically have a higher unit price than trendy dolls) and overseas markets (which are priced higher than in mainland China) will increase, driving growth in average selling prices in 2025.

Macquarie indicated that its current revenue forecast implies an average selling price of approximately RMB 96 per unit. Based on the firm's estimated revenue of RMB 38.4 billion divided by 400 million units, this means a year-on-year revenue growth of 148% for the fourth quarter of 2025; a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3%. If we assume the average selling price increases to RMB 100 per unit, then the annual revenue could reach RMB 40 billion, with an estimated fourth-quarter revenue of RMB 13.6 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 180% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.2%.

Macquarie believes that the value contribution of THE MONSTERS IP may be even higher, as the proportion of plush toys and the MEGA series is significant (both have average selling prices higher than trendy dolls), and their exposure overseas is better than in mainland China, with expected average selling prices above the group's average level. The firm anticipates that the company will manage its IP portfolio more cautiously in 2026, with the revenue contribution from THE MONSTERS IP potentially decreasing from the forecasted 44% in 2025 to below 40%.

Macquarie reiterated its "Outperform" rating on POP MART, with a target price of RMB 470. The firm continues to be optimistic about POP MART's potential to expand into overseas markets through balanced development of its IP