Citigroup gives BYD a "Buy" rating with a target price of 174 yuan

Citi published a research report indicating that it estimates BYD (01211.HK) will see its absolute inventory in the domestic market decrease by 1.2% month-on-month to 387,000 units by the end of January 2026; however, due to retail sales in that month potentially falling short of expectations (estimated to decline by 65% month-on-month), the relative inventory days based on monthly retail sales are expected to soar from 1.2 months at the end of December 2025 to 3.4 months, according to the bank's estimates.

Entering March, if the monthly sales rate for domestic retail and exports can recover to levels of 150,000 and 130,000 units respectively, then the domestic inventory target of 1.9 months could support a total wholesale sales rate of 210,000 units in March (including exports). However, this also means that the total wholesale sales rate for the first quarter of 2026 would be 535,000 units, representing a year-on-year decline of 47%, which the bank considers to be a relatively low level. The bank noted that a key variable for the future will be the new products and their pricing points that BYD launches at the end of February and the beginning of March. The bank has given a "Buy" rating with a target price of 174 yuan