Alibaba Stock Forecast Ahead of Q3 Earnings – Here's What to Expect

E-commerce giant Alibaba (BABA) is set to report fiscal Q3 2026 results soon. The stock rose more than 24% in 2025 and roughly 6% so far this year, helped by demand for its AI services and steady cloud growth. Still, tougher local competition, heavy spending that may pressure margins, and slower trends in its core retail business remain key risks.President's Day Sale - 70% OffUnlock hedge fund-level data and powerful investing tools for smarter, sharper decisions Stay ahead of the market with the latest news and analysis and maximize your portfolio's potential Expectations from Alibaba For Q3 FY26, Wall Street analysts expect earnings of $1.68 per share, down from $3.09 in the year-ago quarter. Revenue is projected at about $42.0 billion, representing an 8% year-over-year increase. During the earnings call, investors will focus on cloud revenue and overall sales growth. Markets will look for continued strength in Alibaba's AI and cloud demand, along with stable e-commerce performance. They will also watch margins as the company increases AI spending. Analysts' Views Ahead of Results Ahead of results, Erste Group analyst Stephan Lingnau downgraded Alibaba from Buy to Hold. He noted that the company is increasingly focused on making money from AI through its cloud business and by building its own AI chips, which is a positive. However, he also pointed out that operating margins have dropped and long-term debt has increased. Because of these mixed trends, the analyst believes the stock is likely to "move sideways in the medium term" rather than post strong gains. Meanwhile, Jefferies analyst Thomas Chong reaffirmed a Buy rating and a $225 price target, saying Alibaba is well placed for the rise of AI agents. The 5-star analyst pointed to the latest Qwen app update, which now works closely with Alibaba's main services such as Taobao, Alipay, Fliggy, and Amap. This lets users shop, order food, plan trips, and make payments in one place. Chong said this shows how Alibaba is turning AI into a tool that completes tasks, not just answers questions. He also highlighted strong momentum at Alibaba Cloud, noting that many business customers already use both AI models and computing services. With most companies still early in AI adoption, Jefferies sees a long runway for cloud growth ahead. What Is the Price Target for BABA Stock? According to TipRanks, Alibaba stock has received a Strong Buy consensus rating, with 15 Buys and one Hold rating assigned in the last three months. The average Alibaba price target of $203.09 implies about 30.38% upside potential from current levels.