Citi: Passenger volume during the first 17 days of the Spring Festival travel season increased by 4% year-on-year, maintaining a "Buy" rating on Trip.com

Citi released a research report indicating that the Ministry of Transport announced the national passenger throughput for the first 17 days of the Spring Festival travel season (February 2 to March 13); the total volume increased by 4% year-on-year, with railways, civil aviation, highways, and waterways growing by 2.8%, 5.2%, 4%, and 18.4% respectively. The performance was even stronger in the first four days of the 9-day Spring Festival holiday, with a total increase of 6.8% year-on-year, and railways, civil aviation, highways, and waterways growing by 3.5%, 7.7%, 6.8%, and 26.9% respectively.

The bank believes that the domestic passenger throughput data is generally in line with expectations, with civil aviation and highways performing better than the market, but railway data is slightly weak, possibly due to base comparison issues. In terms of outbound travel, the National Immigration Administration estimates that the average daily cross-border passenger volume during the 9-day holiday will reach 2.05 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%. This remains to be seen, as the immigration bureau's pre-holiday forecasts are often overly optimistic and affected by events in Japan.

The bank maintains a "Buy" rating on Trip.com (TCOM.US) and TONGCHENGTRAVEL (00780.HK), giving Trip.com a target price of $82 and TONGCHENGTRAVEL a target price of HKD 28.

However, the bank believes that Trip.com's stock price is unlikely to fluctuate due to the Spring Festival data, as the market supervision bureau is still conducting investigations. Trip.com will announce its earnings after the U.S. market closes on February 25