Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) has posted its 13th consecutive month of declining sales in Europe while rival BYD Company (OTC:BYDDY) more than doubled its market share.



<h2>Tesla’s European Collapse</h2>



Tesla’s new car registrations across the EU, UK and EFTA fell 17% year-on-year in January to just 8,075 units. 



Market share slipped to 0.8%, down from 1% a year earlier.



But registrations only capture one month’s snapshot. 



Actual sales tell a darker story. 



Across 13 European markets, Tesla’s sales volume has dropped roughly 50% since January 2024. That means the decline is accelerating. 



UK registrations alone plunged 57%.



This isn’t an EV problem. 



Battery electric car sales across the EU climbed nearly 14% in January, and the segment now accounts for almost 20% of the market.



BYD shifted 18,242 cars in the same period, a 165% year-on-year jump, giving it more than double Tesla’s European market share. 



Morningstar’s Michael Field told CNBC that Chinese automakers have a cost advantage that may prove insurmountable.



Tesla’s problems don’t end in Europe. Globally, deliveries have now fallen two years running, dropping 8.6% in 2025 to 1.64 million. 



BYD overtook Tesla as the world’s top EV brand last year.



The stock is off roughly 11% year-to-date, trading around $409.



<h2>Polymarket Isn’t Buying The Robotaxi Pivot</h2>



Much of Tesla’s $1.5 trillion valuation rests on autonomous vehicles eventually eclipsing the car business. Elon Musk told investors in January 2025 that robotaxis would be “the largest asset value increase in human history.”



Traders on Polymarket are skeptical this increase will happen anytime soon. 



A contract on Tesla launching robotaxis in California by June 30 sits at 26%. 



A market on selling a Cybercab for $30,000 or less this year is at 28%, despite Elon Musk touting an April production start and a sub-$30K price tag. 



A contract on Robovan preorders before 2027 trades at 20%.



Volume on all three is relatively thin, about $95,000 in total, so the signal is directional, not definitive. But the consistency is notable: bettors are pricing every major robotaxi milestone as unlikely.



<h2>Meanwhile, Waymo Just Hit 10 Cities</h2>



Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL)-owned Waymo expanded to 10 U.S. cities this week, adding Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Orlando. 



It’s logging over 400,000 driverless rides per week and targeting 1 million by year-end, backed by $16 billion in fresh capital.



Tesla’s Austin fleet has roughly 44 active vehicles. 



A Jefferies note released today found that Tesla offered just 2 of 15 test rides without a safety driver and failed to book a ride over 25% of the time.



Musk predicted 500 robotaxis in Austin by the end of 2025. He said half the U.S. would be covered. Neither happened.



<h2>Bulls Aren’t Flinching</h2>



Wedbush’s Dan Ives maintains a $600 base case and $800 bull case, calling 2026 the “most important year” for Tesla. 



ARK’s Cathie Wood has projected $2,600 by 2030 on the robotaxi recurring revenue thesis.



Bulls also point to Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, as another long-term catalyst. 



But Polymarket gives a consumer release by year-end just a 21% chance, and Musk himself has warned that early production will be “agonizingly slow.”



Image: Shutterstock

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Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) has experienced its 13th consecutive month of declining sales in Europe, with registrations down 17% year-on-year in January. Meanwhile, BYD Company (OTC:BYDDY) has more than doubled its market share. Globally, Tesla's deliveries have fallen for two years, dropping 8.6% in 2025. Predictions for Tesla's robotaxi launch are low, with Polymarket showing skepticism about milestones. Despite challenges, some analysts maintain bullish projections for Tesla's future, citing potential catalysts like the Optimus robot.

- Tesla Inc has experienced its 13th consecutive month of declining sales in Europe, with new car registrations falling 17% year-on-year in January to 8,075 units and market share dropping to 0.8%.  
- In contrast, BYD Company has seen a significant increase, with a 165% year-on-year jump in registrations, giving it over double Tesla’s market share.  
- Globally, Tesla's deliveries have fallen for two consecutive years, and its stock has declined roughly 11% year-to-date amid skepticism regarding its robotaxi ambitions.

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