Magnet Wars: How the U.S. Plans to Break China’s Grip on Rare Earths

The struggle for geopolitical supremacy is rapidly becoming a struggle over one critical resource - rare earth magnets.They will determine whether the United States can build military equipment at scale, whether weapons can be replaced as fast as they are used, and whether industry can keep pace with demand across an economy measured in the tens of trillions of dollars.For the United States, winning this strategic competition hinges on a single, difficult capability: the domestic production of magnet materials at scale. While many other Western firms are very early in the exploration stage or 'paper' phase of developing processing capabilities, one company is already operational and processing metals.Based in Euclid, Ohio, REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) operates North America’s only facility that has converted heavy rare earths into the high-performance metals and alloys required for defense systems. By bridging the gap between raw oxides and finished magnets, they have moved beyond the industry's theoretical roadmaps to provide a functioning supply chain that feeds American factories and weapons programs today.The company has non-binding agreements in place for long-term feedstock from North America, Kazakhstan, Greenland, and Brazil and processes it directly in the United States, eliminating offshore detours. It is already supplying qualified metals and alloys under U.S. Department of Defense contracts as sourcing rules tighten toward fully domestic material.What the DoD Needs UrgentlyThe U.S. military is working with REalloys for rare earth metals and alloys for use in active programs. The company produces defense-grade metal and alloy domestically, to specifications already embedded in program supply chains. As sourcing rules change in 2027 and Chinese material becomes ineligible, that same material remains compliant without modification. No other North American supplier currently produces the same class of qualified heavy rare earth metals and alloys. And in our opinion it is unlikely they will have the capabilities to do so at scale for at least another 3 years.Heavy rare earths keep modern missile and aerospace systems operating under extreme conditions. Dysprosium and terbium are added to magnet alloys to preserve magnetic strength when temperatures rise or when vibration intensifies.That makes heavy rare earths absolutely vital to things like precision-guided missiles and missile-defense interceptors. Dysprosium and terbium are non-negotiable inputs for these weapons systems.Where REalloys Ranks in the Magnet WarStrip away the rhetoric, and the U.S. rare earth landscape collapses fast. Most companies are still upstream, with mines, oxides, separation pilots, and PowerPoint roadmaps. REalloys is firmly downstream, where supply chains either function or fail.They have an executed commercial processing and long-term offtake agreement with the Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC) tied to SRC’s Rare Earth Processing Facility in Saskatoon. Under that agreement, REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) secures 80% of annual production from the upgraded capacity, with supply structured on a cost-plus model. Heavy rare earth production from the upgraded facility is expected to begin in early 2027, positioning REalloys as the only commercial-scale supplier of dysprosium and terbium oxides in North America.They are also committing approximately US$21 million to expand the facility to lift heavy rare earth processing capacity by about 300% and increasing light rare earth (NdPr) capacity by 50%. The design output is up to 30 tonnes of dysprosium oxide, 15 tonnes of terbium oxide, and 400 tonnes per year of high-purity NdPr metal, with NdPr increasing to 600 tonnes per year after the expansion is complete, with first production slated for early next year.LOI’s are in place for feedstock from Kazakhstan, Brazil, and Greenland.In Kazakhstan, they have secured a non-binding long-term offtake agreement with AltynGroup for rare-earth feedstock containing both light and heavy rare-earth elements, including dysprosium and terbium.That raw material will feed directly into REalloys’ U.S. metals and alloy production rather than being routed offshore. In Brazil, the company has signed an offtake memorandum with St George Mining that outlines access to up to 40% of rare earth production from the country’s Araxá project, subject to definitive agreements.In Greenland, they have a 10-year offtake arrangement (at LOI stage) under which it expects to supply REalloys up to 15% of annual production from the Tanbreez project’s rare earth concentrate.The final destination is the Department of Defense.Their Euclid, Ohio facility is designed to separate rare earth oxides which are reduced into metal under controlled atmospheres and alloyed into magnet-grade compositions. Both light and heavy rare earths, including dysprosium and terbium, will be processed at this facility within the same metallurgical workflow. Output is produced as pre-alloyed metal, with chemistry set upstream and held to tight tolerances required for qualified magnet production. This places Euclid between separation and magnet manufacturing, at the point where rare earths become usable inputs rather than intermediates.The material is bought through ordinary commercial supply relationships and moves directly into magnets and components supplied to the DoD.America Rebuilds Under Strategic ThreatFor the first time in decades, the United States is rebuilding a rare-earth supply chain under active Chinese pressure.It is doing so under deliberate Chinese pressure on the processed materials that keep weapons programs and factories running.Almost no one outside China can reliably turn rare earth oxides into finished metal on an industrial scale.That step turning rare earth oxides into usable metals is where most Western supply chains quietly gave up decades ago.The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) identifies rare-earth metallization and alloying as the least developed and most difficult capability to rebuild outside China. In its work on supply-chain resilience, CSIS describes metal and alloy production as an experience-driven bottleneck–one that cannot be recreated quickly, even with funding in place.The CSIS makes this clear: rare-earth metallization is learned over long operating histories, not built on a schedule. Reaching stable, magnet-grade output can take many years and, in some cases, decades. Mines can be built, but metallization cannot be rushed.While most Western efforts stop at oxides or pilot separation, Realloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) is operating at the conversion step CSIS identifies as the hardest to rebuild. At Euclid, oxide becomes metal, metal becomes alloy, and chemistry is held inside specifications already accepted downstream. That work is happening now, inside an operating U.S. facility.They operate at the conversion layer CSIS identifies as the hardest capability to rebuild outside China. The separated rare earth oxides reduced into metal and alloyed to magnet-grade specifications at Euclid will be used downstream. The process runs under controlled atmospheres, with chemistry set upstream and held within tight tolerances across repeated production runs.That capability is rare because the U.S. abandoned it decades ago and it can’t be rebuilt quickly. It requires operating history, not construction schedules. It exists here, inside an operating U.S. facility, feeding magnet and defense supply chains with usable material rather than intermediates.This capability sets the limits of the rebuild, and of U.S. industrial and defense capacity.Here are other companies that are reliant on heavy rare earth elements and why they are so important to their businesses:Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)Microsoft has become a pivotal architect of the "Circular Rare Earth Economy," shifting its strategy from simple procurement to large-scale urban mining. In early 2025, Microsoft achieved a major breakthrough by launching a commercial-scale Rare Earth Material Capture Program in collaboration with Western Digital. By decommissioning and shredding approximately 50,000 pounds of end-of-life hard disk drives (HDDs) from its global data centers, Microsoft demonstrated an acid-free, environmentally friendly process that recovers over 90% of the neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) used in high-performance magnets. This initiative allows Microsoft to bypass traditional mining for a portion of its hardware needs, effectively turning its own data centers into a "domestic mine" that reduces processing emissions by an estimated 95%.Beyond recycling, Microsoft is a major backer of AI-driven mineral discovery through KoBold Metals, an exploration firm co-founded with Bill Gates. By 2026, Microsoft has integrated its Azure high-performance computing (HPC) power with KoBold’s "Machine Prospector" to identify "Tier 1" critical mineral deposits in regions previously thought to be exhausted, such as Western Australia and Sub-Saharan Africa. This partnership combines decades of historical geological data with proprietary machine learning models to predict the location of deep-seated ore bodies. For Microsoft, this is a strategic play to ensure that the lithium and copper required for the energy transition are discovered at a pace that matches the expansion of its massive global AI infrastructure.Microsoft’s role in the rare earth sector is ultimately that of a "supply chain stabilizer." Through its Circular Centers in Singapore, Amsterdam, and the U.S., the company has created an Intelligent Disposition and Routing System (IDARS) that uses AI to automatically sort and route hardware for the most efficient recovery of critical metals. By late 2026, Microsoft is not just a consumer of rare earth magnets but a licensed provider of "recovered" rare earth oxides, positioning the company as a key contributor to the U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve and a leader in reducing the West's reliance on primary Chinese ore.NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA)NVIDIA is the "technological engine" powering the modernization of the rare earth industry, moving from supplying GPUs to creating the "AI Factory" for mining. At CES 2026, NVIDIA and Caterpillar (CAT) announced an expanded collaboration to deploy "Physical AI" across mining sites globally. By integrating the NVIDIA Jetson Thor platform into autonomous mining fleets, NVIDIA has enabled machines to process billions of data points in milliseconds, allowing for high-precision extraction in complex environments. This technology is vital for rare earth mining, where the "overburden" (waste rock) is often massive; NVIDIA’s real-time AI allows for surgical-level mineral sorting, drastically reducing the energy and water required to produce a single kilogram of refined material.Crucially, NVIDIA has pioneered the use of Digital Twins for rare earth refineries through its Omniverse platform. In 2026, facilities like the Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC) and MP Materials utilize NVIDIA’s OpenUSD-based simulations to model the chemical behavior of rare earth separation at a molecular level. This "Simulation-First" approach allows engineers to optimize the proprietary solvent extraction (SX) cells, the most guarded and difficult step of rare earth processing, without wasting expensive chemical reagents. By creating a virtual mirror of the refinery, NVIDIA helps domestic processors achieve the purity levels required for defense-grade magnets (99.9%+) at a fraction of the traditional R&D cost.NVIDIA's strategic leverage in the sector was further highlighted in 2025 through the "Magnets-for-Chips" framework. Under this policy, NVIDIA’s high-end Blackwell and Vera Rubin AI systems are prioritized for companies and nations that contribute to the Western rare earth supply chain. This makes NVIDIA a "geopolitical facilitator," using its dominance in AI silicon to force a restructuring of the critical minerals market. As the demand for AI servers, which are packed with rare earth magnets, continues to surge, NVIDIA’s involvement ensures that the infrastructure of the "Intelligence Age" is built on a secure, non-Chinese material foundation.Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL)Google, through DeepMind and Google Cloud, has positioned itself as the "automated chemist" of the rare earth industry. In early 2026, Google DeepMind unveiled GNoME 3.0 (Graph Networks for Materials Exploration), an AI model that predicted over 2 million new crystalline structures, many of which are specifically designed to be high-performance, rare-earth-free permanent magnets. By simulating new material combinations that mimic the magnetic properties of neodymium but use more abundant elements like iron and nitrogen, Google is working to "engineer out" the vulnerability of the rare earth supply chain entirely. This research is shared with the U.S. Department of Energy, serving as a "long-term insurance policy" for Western industrial defense.In the immediate term, Google Cloud is the data backbone for the Saskatchewan Research Council’s (SRC) AI-powered separation facility. Google’s Vertex AI models are the brains behind the facility’s "micro-adjustment" sensors, which coordinate the flow of thousands of chemical tanks to separate the 17 chemically identical rare earth elements. While a traditional Chinese plant relies on 80 human workers to manually adjust valves, the Google-powered SRC plant operates with just six people, using computer vision to detect minute changes in color and density that signal a successful separation. This "Software-Defined Refining" is what allows the Saskatchewan plant to outperform much larger Chinese facilities in terms of purity and output.Google’s involvement also extends to autonomous exploration via its "X" (Moonshot Factory) alumni and partnerships in mineral characterization. Through the ROCKS (Reliable Ore Characterization with Keystone Sensing) initiative launched in late 2025, Google provides the machine-learning frameworks used to analyze hyperspectral satellite imagery to find rare earth deposits hidden under heavy vegetation or ice. By 2026, Google has effectively become the "Search Engine for the Crust," providing the analytical tools that turn raw geological data into actionable "drill-ready" targets for miners like BHP and Lithium Americas, ensuring that the next generation of critical minerals is discovered with a "digital-first" mindset.Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA)Tesla remains one of the most influential industrial demand drivers for critical minerals and magnetic materials globally. Although its core business is electric vehicles and energy storage, Tesla’s design choices in traction motors, battery chemistry, and material sourcing have profound implications for rare earths, nickel, lithium, and cobalt markets. Major EVs typically incorporate neodymium-praseodymium magnets in their motors, and even as Tesla explores designs with reduced rare earth content, the underlying demand for high-performance permanent magnets and advanced battery metals continues to shape supplier strategy.Tesla’s high-volume manufacturing footprint, global supply agreements, and influence on EV battery chemistries make it a bellwether for critical mineral demand trends, particularly in North America and Europe, where domestic supply diversification remains a strategic priority.General Motors Company (NYSE: GM)General Motors has expanded its upstream exposure as access to battery raw materials increasingly dictates EV scaling timelines. The automaker continues to secure direct stakes and long-term contracts across the lithium, nickel, and cobalt value chains to underpin its Ultium platform.Its investment in Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass project provides priority access to Phase 1 lithium supply, supporting full U.S. tax credit eligibility under current IRA guidelines. Its investment in Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass project provides priority access to Phase 1 lithium supply, supporting full U.S. tax credit eligibility under current IRA guidelines. GM has also expanded nickel and cobalt supply arrangements with global miners to diversify sourcing.Downstream integration continues through cathode joint ventures in North America and battery recycling partnerships designed to recover high percentages of lithium, nickel, and cobalt from scrap and end-of-life packs, reducing long-term primary material exposure.IperionX (NASDAQ: IPX)IperionX is disrupting the global titanium industry by re-shoring production to the United States using its patented HAMR™ and HSPT technologies. Unlike the traditional, high-cost "Kroll process" utilized in China and Russia, IperionX’s method allows for the production of low-carbon, high-performance titanium components using 100% recycled titanium scrap as feedstock. By early 2026, the company has scaled its Titanium Manufacturing Campus in Virginia to a production capacity of 1,400 metric tonnes per year, achieving a significant "EBITDA inflection point" as it begins fulfilling commercial orders for aerospace and defense giants.The company has solidified its status as a critical defense partner, recently securing a prototype purchase order from American Rheinmetall to produce lightweight titanium components for U.S. Army heavy ground combat systems. These titanium parts offer a 45% weight reduction over steel, drastically increasing the operational range and agility of combat vehicles. Backed by over $47 million in funding from the U.S. Department of Defense, IperionX is currently expanding its Virginia facility to meet the surge in demand from the Navy and major automakers like Ford, who are seeking to lighten vehicle frames without compromising structural integrity.Looking upstream, IperionX is advancing its Titan Project in Tennessee, a massive critical mineral resource that will eventually provide domestic feedstock for its titanium and rare earth processing operations. This "circular" business model, recycling scrap in the near term while developing a primary mine for the long term, positions IperionX as a rare hybrid of a technology company and a commodities producer. As the only commercial primary titanium producer in the U.S., the company is effectively ending American reliance on adversarial nations for the metal that forms the backbone of modern military hardware.Olin Corporation (NYSE: OLN)Olin Corporation serves as the "indispensable utility" for the entire Western critical minerals and rare earth processing industry. As the world’s leading producer of chlor-alkali products, Olin provides the massive volumes of hydrochloric acid and caustic soda required to separate rare earth elements and purify lithium brine. In early 2026, Olin intensified its "Beyond250" structural cost-reduction program, targeting over $120 million in annual savings to maintain its competitive edge as the primary chemical supplier to the "Battery Belt" refineries currently coming online across North America.While Olin faces the typical headwinds of a cyclical commodity market, its 2026 strategy has pivoted toward long-term, high-margin supply agreements with domestic mineral processors who require "just-in-time" chemical logistics. The company’s sprawling infrastructure in the U.S., combined with its expansion into Brazil and Europe, allows it to act as the "picks and shovels" play for the energy transition. Without Olin’s reagents, the "mine-to-magnet" supply chains being built by other companies on your list would effectively grind to a halt due to the lack of specialized hazardous material processing.Beyond its chemical leadership, Olin’s Winchester ammunition division remains a major cash flow driver, benefiting from high global demand for defense and security products. This dual exposure, providing the chemical inputs for green technology while maintaining a dominant position in the defense sector, creates a uniquely resilient business model. As the U.S. government pushes for "all-of-the-above" domestic mineral sovereignty, Olin remains the "hidden giant" that enables the chemistry of American independence.By. Josh Owens