The impact of the Iran situation has led Indian refiners to focus on Russian oil again

The Iran crisis has nearly disrupted the Strait of Hormuz passage, putting India under severe oil supply pressure. As the world's third-largest oil importer, India is once again turning its attention to Russian crude oil, which it had significantly reduced due to U.S. pressure. On Monday, media reports indicated that Indian state-owned refiners and government officials held an emergency meeting over the weekend to discuss contingency plans in response to the Strait of Hormuz crisis. According to insiders, one of the options being considered by India is to procure Russian crude oil shipments currently stranded in nearby waters—by the end of last weekend, approximately 9.5 million barrels of Russian oil were anchored in Asian waters. According to previous reports from CCTV News, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on February 3 that Russia had not received any information from India regarding a halt in purchasing Russian oil. The urgency of this crisis lies in the fact that India's daily crude oil imports of about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels must pass through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for approximately half of its total oil imports. Officials from the Ministry of Petroleum stated that India's commercial and strategic reserves can only sustain supply for about two weeks, and the situation is not optimistic. Russian Oil Purchases Plummet, Crisis Forces Reevaluation India's relationship with Russian oil has recently undergone a significant shift. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India became the most important single buyer of Russian seaborne crude oil, but under U.S. pressure—especially after the trade agreement reached last month and the U.S. withdrawal of punitive tariffs—India drastically reduced its purchases from Russia. Data shows that in February this year, India imported just over 1 million barrels of crude oil from Russia daily, about half of the peak period and the lowest level since September 2022. The resulting gap has mainly been filled by Middle Eastern oil. Now, the Strait of Hormuz crisis has hindered this alternative source, forcing India to reassess the strategic value of Russian crude oil. According to insiders, officials from the Ministry of Petroleum are pushing the Ministry of External Affairs to seek some policy flexibility from Washington to restore some Russian oil purchases without crossing U.S. red lines. Multi-Pronged Approach, Contingency Plans Taking Shape In addition to Russian crude oil, India is also evaluating multiple alternative options. According to media reports citing insiders, the relevant options include: utilizing India's strategic oil reserves, accelerating supplies from Venezuela, urging domestic producers to increase output, and requesting Saudi Aramco to transport more crude oil to Red Sea ports via pipelines, thereby bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. If the crisis persists, the government may also take more proactive intervention measures—restricting refined oil exports to ensure domestic supply, prioritizing residential gas and pipeline supplies, and requiring industrial users to switch fuels. Officials may also pressure private giant Reliance Industries to redirect more fuel to the domestic market while guiding other refiners to adjust their production structure, sacrificing products like naphtha to maximize liquefied petroleum gas output Weak Strategic Reserves, Highlighting Supply Vulnerability This crisis has also exposed the deep-seated hidden dangers of India's energy security. Last month, Oil Minister Hardeep Puri informed lawmakers that India's strategic petroleum reserves are approximately 30 million barrels, which is only equivalent to about six days of consumption, and the reserves are limited to crude oil, excluding liquefied petroleum gas or liquefied natural gas. Nearly two-thirds of India's liquefied natural gas imports and about 95% of its liquefied petroleum gas supply come from the Middle East, most of which must pass through the critical chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz. The enormous demand combined with limited strategic buffers makes India particularly vulnerable in the context of ongoing turmoil in the Middle East. How to seek a balance between geopolitical pressures and energy security will be the core challenge faced by the Indian government in this crisis