According to "The Big Bank," Bank of America Securities expects H World to achieve a 64% growth in adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter, with the target price raised to 50.2 yuan

Bank of America Securities published a research report, predicting that H World-S (01179.HK) will see a 2% year-on-year increase in domestic overall revenue per available room (RevPAR) and a 7% increase in overall company revenue in the fourth quarter of 2025; adjusted EBITDA is expected to be RMB 2.044 billion (up 64% year-on-year, down 19% quarter-on-quarter). The bank estimates that its adjusted profit for the last quarter will grow by 233% year-on-year to RMB 1.036 billion. The growth in EBITDA and profit is mainly supported by steady growth in revenue per available room and margin expansion.

The bank expects that H World's revenue per available room during the Spring Festival will grow year-on-year by a low single-digit to mid-single-digit percentage, benefiting from the dual growth of average daily room rate (ADR) and occupancy rate. Given the steady performance of revenue per available room year-to-date, it is expected that management will provide full-year revenue per available room guidance this year that is flat to slightly positive. This will translate into high single-digit revenue growth in 2026. Additionally, the group's share buyback in the first nine months of 2025 was only USD 62 million, indicating an upside risk to the full-year dividend payout ratio exceeding guidance (over 60%).

Bank of America Securities raised its net profit forecasts for the group by 3% and 2% for 2025 and 2026, respectively; and increased the target price for H World (HTHT.US) from USD 62 to USD 64, and the target price for the Hong Kong stock from HKD 48.7 to HKD 50.2; reaffirming a "Buy" rating