Goldman Sachs lowers Tencent Music's target price to 78 yuan, making it attractive after the stock price adjustment

Goldman Sachs published a research report indicating that Tencent Music (01698.HK) stock price has declined over the past six months, reflecting the market's increasing concerns, including challenges posed by competitors in the music streaming platform, potential margin pressure from the rising share of non-subscription business and live event sponsorship, as well as recent discussions regarding the impact of AI on the entire music industry.

The firm expects the company's music business revenue to grow by 17% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by double-digit growth in subscription business. It also anticipates the company's overall revenue to grow by double digits year-on-year this year, with stable margins, as the company focuses on its strategy to enhance service offerings and member monetization by expanding average revenue per paying user (ARPU).

Based on the stock currently trading at the lower end of its valuation range over the past five years, the firm believes the risk-reward is attractive, maintaining a "Buy" rating, and lowering the target price for Tencent Music's Hong Kong stock from HKD 90 to HKD 78, and the target price for Tencent Music (TME.US) in the U.S. stock market from USD 23 to USD 20