The armed conflict that has erupted in the Middle East is severely impacting the global fertilizer supply chain, raising deep concerns in the market about a new round of food crisis.
QatarEnergy announced on Monday that its facility in Ras Laffan has completely halted the production of sulfur, ammonia, and urea following a drone attack. Meanwhile, Iran has taken all of its ammonia production capacity offline, and other producers in the region are considering cutting output due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Fertilizer prices have sharply surged—Middle Eastern granular urea prices have risen by about $130 per ton since last Friday, currently quoted at $575 to $650; European ammonia futures have also increased significantly, with April trading prices at $725 per ton, about $130 higher than mid-February trading prices.
Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Europe's largest fertilizer group Yara, warned that the focus on the oil and gas market is &#34;obscuring&#34; the impact of this conflict on the fertilizer industry. Analysts point out that the destructive potential of this crisis may exceed the food shocks caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, as any blockage of the Strait of Hormuz would create a physical logistics barrier rather than just a price disturbance.
<h2>Strait of Hormuz: The Throat of Global Fertilizer Trade</h2>
According to a report by the Financial Times on Thursday, the Strait of Hormuz plays a crucial role in global fertilizer trade. According to CRU data, approximately 35% of global urea exports are transported through this waterway. Urea is the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, which supports about half of global food production. Additionally, this route also handles 45% of global sulfur exports—sulfur is a key raw material for producing phosphate fertilizers—and a significant amount of ammonia transport, which is a core input for nitrogen fertilizer production.
The Middle East is one of the most important fertilizer production regions in the world. QatarEnergy exported 5.4 million tons of urea last year, accounting for about 10% of global maritime trade volume. The shutdown of the Ras Laffan complex directly cuts off an important supply source for the global market.
Sarah Marlow, head of global fertilizer pricing at Argus, stated that Iran has taken all of its ammonia production capacity offline, and other producers in the region are also assessing production cuts due to shipping disruptions.
<h2>Price Shock Already Apparent, Food Inflation May Transmit Within Weeks</h2>
The sharp rise in fertilizer prices is transmitting to downstream food prices. Raj Patel, a food systems expert at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, estimates that if supply disruptions persist, consumers could see bread prices rise within 6 to 10 weeks, with egg prices affected within months, and pork and broiler prices increasing within 6 months.
The surge in energy costs further exacerbates the pressure. Natural gas is a core raw material for producing nitrogen fertilizers such as ammonia and urea, and rising gas prices will quickly drive up production costs. Holsether revealed that the price of natural gas used by Yara for fertilizer production in Europe has surged from $10.6 per million British thermal units last Friday to over $20 on Monday, nearly doubling
The timing of this shock is particularly sensitive. Farmers in Europe and parts of the Northern Hemisphere are entering the spring fertilization season—this stage of fertilizer procurement and application directly determines the annual crop yield.
<h2>Analysts: The Destructive Power of This Crisis May Exceed That of 2022</h2>
Market analysts believe that the structural risks of this supply shock are even higher than in 2022. Chris Lawson, head of fertilizer business at CRU, pointed out that while prices soared dramatically in 2022, the market was still able to adjust because Russian exports were not interrupted; however, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is a &#34;physical barrier&#34; of a completely different nature.
Patel also stated that the food shock in 2022 was more direct because Ukraine is a major wheat exporter, but &#34;the impact this time will be more widespread.&#34;
Holsether expressed concern about the impact on the most vulnerable groups. &#34;What worries me is that, as we saw in 2022, the cost is ultimately borne by the most vulnerable populations,&#34; he said. &#34;We have witnessed what that means—hunger and famine in many parts of the world.&#34;
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Armed conflicts in the Middle East have led to widespread fertilizer production halts, raising concerns about a global food crisis. Qatar's national energy company announced that its facilities have stopped production due to drone attacks, and Iran has also shut down its ammonia production capacity. Fertilizer prices have surged sharply, with urea prices rising by about $130 per ton, and European ammonia futures have also increased significantly. Analysts warn that this crisis could be more severe than the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will impact the global fertilizer supply chain, thereby affecting food production

- The armed conflict in the Middle East is severely impacting the global fertilizer supply chain, raising concerns of a new food crisis.  
- QatarEnergy's facility in Ras Laffan has halted production of sulfur, ammonia, and urea following a drone attack, while Iran has also taken its ammonia capacity offline.  
- Fertilizer prices are rapidly increasing, with market analysts warning that this crisis could have a greater impact on food inflation than the 2022 Ukraine conflict, due to potential logistical barriers in the Strait of Hormuz.

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The Middle East conflict has caused large-scale fertilizer production stoppages, and experts warn that the global food crisis may exceed that of 2022