"Market Review" Hang Seng Index holds at 25,000, Northbound capital net inflow of 37.2 billion hits a new high, CNOOC rises over 3%
The conflict between the U.S. and Israel has entered its 10th day, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led several Middle Eastern oil-producing countries to cut production. New York crude oil surged by as much as 30% to over $119 per barrel this morning. Subsequently, foreign media reported that the G7 and the International Energy Agency would hold a meeting to discuss releasing oil reserves, which significantly narrowed the increase in New York crude oil to over 10%. The Hang Seng Index experienced a drop of 851 points today before the decline was reduced. At the time of writing, the yield on U.S. 2-year bonds rose to 3.619%, the yield on U.S. 10-year bonds rose to 4.179%, and the U.S. dollar index rose to 99.45. Dow futures were down 701 points or 1.5%, and Nasdaq futures were down 369 points or 1.5%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 27 points or 0.67% to close at 4,096 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.7%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.65 trillion yuan.
The Hang Seng Index opened down 681 points, at one point falling 851 points to a low of 24,906 points, ultimately closing down 348 points or 1.4% at 25,408 points; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 46 points or 0.5% to close at 8,581 points; the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 5 points or 0.12% to close at 4,941 points. The total trading volume for the day was 392.33 billion yuan. The total trading volume of northbound funds was 169.81 billion yuan, while southbound funds saw a net inflow of 37.214 billion yuan (compared to a net outflow of 27.735 billion yuan on the previous trading day), reaching a historical high. According to the relevant regulations of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's Stock Connect business implementation measures, the list of eligible securities for the Hong Kong Stock Connect was adjusted today.
Inflation concerns have dampened interest rate cut expectations, with local property stocks such as New World Development (00016.HK), Henderson Land Development (00012.HK), and Swire Properties (01972.HK) seeing stock prices drop by 3.6% to 4.1%, while Hang Lung Properties (00101.HK) fell by 4.9%. The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800.HK) closed down 1.2% at 25.62 yuan, with the short-selling ratio soaring to 84.1%.
【Northbound Funds Flow In, CNOOC Favored】
In the oil sector, PetroChina (00857.HK) and CNOOC (00883.HK) rose by 2.3% and 3.3%, respectively. Kunlun Energy (00135.HK) and Sinopec (00386.HK) fell by 3.9% and 4.4%. Oil equipment stocks such as Shandong Molong (00568.HK) surged by 25%, with a trading volume exceeding 9.1 billion yuan. Coal stocks like Shenhua (01088.HK) and Yanzhou Coal (01171.HK) rose by 3.3% and 3.9%.
JP Morgan released a report on China's oil industry, stating that international oil prices have surpassed $100 per barrel. The bank prefers upstream companies over refiners, as it expects the Chinese government's price controls to take effect. The bank adjusted the forward curve in the market and raised the target price for PetroChina (00857.HK) H shares from 10 yuan to 13 yuan, reflecting its model assumptions for oil prices: $80 per barrel in 2026, and $70 and $65 per barrel in 2027 and 2028, respectively JP Morgan stated that it has upgraded its investment rating for CNOOC from "Neutral" to "Overweight," raising the target price from HKD 23 to HKD 31. The firm maintains a "Neutral" rating for Sinopec, increasing its H-share target price from HKD 4 to HKD 5.5.
【Declining stocks exceed 1,600, MiniMax surges】
The Hong Kong stock market has weakened, with a rise-and-fall ratio of main board stocks at 13 to 40 (compared to 33 to 18 the previous day), with 1,652 declining stocks (a drop of 3.1%). Today, 17 constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index rose, while 72 fell, with a rise-and-fall ratio of 18 to 80 (compared to 81 to 19 the previous day). The market recorded short selling of HKD 89.419 billion today, accounting for 32.534% of the total turnover of shortable stocks at HKD 274.849 billion.
The OpenClaw craze has sparked interest in AI stocks, with Zhizhu (02513.HK) and Inspur Intelligent (03696.HK) rising by 8.1% and 7.1%, respectively. MiniMax (00100.HK) saw its stock price rise against the trend by 23.8% to close at HKD 997, having reached HKD 1,000 during the day. Cloud service providers Kingsoft Cloud (03896.HK) and GDS Holdings (09698.HK) rose by 13.7% and 5.9%, respectively.
Bank of China Securities stated that OpenClaw is gaining popularity in mainland China, indicating that in the AI era, users need intelligent agents capable of executing complex tasks. OpenClaw is expected to lead AI into the Agent era. OpenClaw is an AI agent that can be deployed on personal computers, integrating a series of capabilities such as models, tool calls, memory, plugins, message entry, and permissions into a usable and scalable whole. Its core architecture consists of four parts: Gateway, Agent, Skills, and Memory. OpenClaw creates a new "model consumption scenario," where the token consumption of a single OpenClaw user may be dozens or even hundreds of times that of traditional chat users. This also determines that users need a continuous, stable, high-frequency, and inexpensive supplier when choosing underlying large models, such as Kimi K2.5 and MiniMax M2.5. The firm pointed out that the sustained rise in OpenClaw's popularity proves a future development trend in AI, where users' demands are not just for a simple "chatbot," but for an intelligent agent that is online 24/7 and capable of executing complex tasks. Companies related to OpenClaw include Youke De (688158.SH), MINIMAX-WP, Zhizhu, Yunsai Zhiliang (600602.SH), Tuo Wei Information (002261.SZ), and Wangsu Technology (300017.SZ)
