In "The Big Banks," Citigroup expects Meituan's new business losses to expand to 3.3 billion RMB in the fourth quarter

Citi published a report indicating that Meituan (03690.HK) continues to be burdened by the delivery subsidy war, expecting total revenue in Q4 2025 to grow only slightly by 2% to RMB 90 billion, with adjusted LBIT remaining at RMB 13 billion. Revenue from the takeaway business may decline by 14% year-on-year due to a decrease in average order value and commission rates. Revenue growth from in-store business may also slow to an 11% year-on-year increase, primarily due to a decline in average order value at restaurants and reduced advertising spending.

Citi noted that losses from Meituan's new businesses may expand to RMB 3.3 billion, and overseas expansion will also increase expenses. Intense competition may persist longer, as competitors are leveraging delivery services to acquire users for e-commerce and AI applications.

The firm has lowered its adjusted net profit forecasts for Meituan for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026 by RMB 3.3 billion and RMB 100 million, respectively. It maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of RMB 135