International oil prices have experienced a dramatic reversal. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has led to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in the largest oil supply disruption in history, with approximately 20% of global oil transportation affected. On Monday, international oil prices fluctuated sharply, with WTI crude oil experiencing an intraday range of $38, peaking at around $120 per barrel.
Subsequently, as major economies discussed releasing strategic oil reserves, coupled with Trump signaling a ceasefire, oil prices quickly fell back to around $90 per barrel.
According to a report by CNBC on Monday, Neil Atkinson, former head of the oil department at the International Energy Agency, stated that the actual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is an unprecedented situation for the energy market. He warned:
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&#34;Unless the situation changes rapidly, we will face an unprecedented energy crisis that will change the landscape.&#34;
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Regarding oil prices, he bluntly stated:
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&#34;There are no precedents to follow; the trend can only rely on reasonable speculation, and the sky is the limit.&#34;
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Currently, oil prices remain uncertain, and the U.S.-Iran situation is still a key variable hanging over the oil market.
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<h2>The Largest Supply Shock in History: Scale Exceeds All Previous Historical Precedents</h2>
According to energy consulting firm Rapidan Energy, the scale of this supply disruption exceeds any previous oil crisis in history, more than double the previous record.
Rapidan analysts pointed out that the largest supply shock prior to this occurred during the 1956 Suez Crisis when the UK, France, and Israel invaded Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, affecting about 10% of global oil supply. The impact of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is nearly three times that of the 1973 Arab oil embargo (which affected about 7% of global supply).
The Strait of Hormuz typically carries about 20% of the world's oil and gas transportation, but since the outbreak of war, shipping through the strait has nearly come to a complete standstill, a situation that has lasted for nine days.
<h2>No Spare Capacity Available: Market Lacks Effective Buffer</h2>
Rapidan analysts emphasized that the fundamental difference between this supply shock and previous crises is that there is currently almost no idle capacity available globally for allocation. Saudi Arabia and the UAE hold most of the flexible capacity, but due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, these two countries have been cut off from the global oil market. He stated:
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&#34;This conflict not only takes offline the highest proportion of global supply in history but also disrupts the major holders of flexible capacity, resulting in the market having no substantial buffer, with no swing producers able to step in to fill the gap.&#34;
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Analysts pointed out that against this backdrop, the global oil market will have to rely on significantly rising oil prices to curb demand in order to achieve a rebalancing of supply and demand. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve currently holds about 415 million barrels, approximately 58% of its statutory maximum capacity of 714 million barrels. Rapidan believes this reserve is &#34;limited and insufficient to fully offset&#34; the supply gap stranded in the Persian Gulf due to the blockade of Hormuz
<h2>Production Shutdown Spreads: Multiple Countries Have Started to Cut Output</h2>
As the situation continues, oil-producing countries in the Middle East have begun to gradually reduce production. According to CNBC, countries such as Iraq and Kuwait have started to shut down some capacity. Analysts at Société Générale warned in a report on Monday that the long-term shutdown of production in Middle Eastern countries will &#34;significantly increase&#34; the risk of difficulties in restarting. He stated:
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&#34;The UAE may be the next producing country facing shutdown risks, with a time window potentially within the next five to seven days. Qatar also faces risks, although its oil production is relatively limited, but it has significant exposure to liquefied natural gas.&#34;
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Janiv Shah, Vice President of Oil Markets at Rystad Energy, predicted that if the current situation persists for four months, Brent crude futures prices could rise to $135 per barrel. In a report on Monday, he stated:
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&#34;Based on current conditions, our forward-looking analysis for the next two months indicates that oil prices will remain above $110 per barrel.&#34;
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The escalation of the US-Iran conflict has led to an effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting approximately 20% of global oil transportation, with a scale exceeding previous oil crises. As major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia are also isolated, there is virtually no idle production capacity to fill the gap. International oil prices are experiencing severe fluctuations, and analysts warn that if the situation cannot be fundamentally reversed, it will trigger an unprecedented energy crisis, with oil prices having no upper limit

- International oil prices experienced significant fluctuations due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused by the U.S.-Iran conflict, resulting in the largest oil supply disruption in history, affecting about 20% of global oil transport.  
- Analysts from Rapidan Energy indicated that the current situation exceeds previous crises, with significant production losses and no available spare capacity to mitigate the impact, as key oil-producing countries are cut off from global markets.  
- As the conflict continues, Middle Eastern oil-producing nations have begun reducing output, while projections suggest that if the situation persists, Brent crude prices could rise above $135 per barrel in the coming months.

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The US-Iran war has triggered the largest "oil supply disruption" in history, analysts warn that oil prices have "the sky as the limit."