Domestic High Frequency | Slow Resumption of Work After the Holiday (Shenwan Hongyuan Macro · Zhao Wei Team)

Report Body High-frequency tracking of production: Industrial production is relatively weak, while construction activity has rebounded somewhat. In industrial production, the operating rate of blast furnaces has declined, while apparent steel consumption has increased. In the second week after the holiday, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 2.5% month-on-month and fell by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year compared to the first week after the holiday to -0.3%; apparent steel consumption improved, increasing by 4.4% month-on-month and rising by 10.6 percentage points year-on-year compared to the previous week to 4.2%. Social steel inventories continue to rise, increasing by 8.3% month-on-month. In midstream production, the operating rate of the petrochemical chain has significantly rebounded, while the operating rate of the consumption chain has weakened. In the second week after the holiday, in the petrochemical chain, the operating rate of soda ash increased by 1.7% month-on-month and rose by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year compared to the first week after the Spring Festival to -0.5%; the operating rate of PTA increased by 6.1% month-on-month and rose by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year compared to the first week after the Spring Festival to -2.8%. In contrast, the operating rate of the consumption chain is relatively weak, with the operating rate of polyester filament falling by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year to -2.4%. The operating rate of semi-steel tires for automobiles increased by 39.5% month-on-month but fell by 5 percentage points year-on-year to 0.2%. In the construction industry, the demand for cement is showing signs of recovery, while prices continue to decline. In the second week after the holiday, the national grinding operating rate increased by 14.7% month-on-month and rose by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to 4.9%; the cement shipment rate increased by 5.6% month-on-month but slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 3.6%. In terms of inventory, the cement inventory capacity ratio decreased by 1.8% month-on-month and fell by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to 1.7%. Additionally, the average price of cement during the week decreased by 1.5% month-on-month. The production and demand for glass are improving, and the asphalt operating rate remains resilient. In the second week after the holiday, glass production increased by 0.8% month-on-month but decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to -6.7%; the apparent consumption of glass increased by 36 percentage points year-on-year to -9.6%. The asphalt operating rate, which reflects infrastructure investment, increased by 2.3% month-on-month but decreased by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to 4.3%. 5. High-frequency tracking of demand: Port freight volume remains high, and the intensity of passenger travel maintains resilience The transaction intensity of commercial housing nationwide has declined, with third-tier cities' transactions falling short of last year's levels. In the second week after the holiday, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased year-on-year to 9.7%. Among them, the year-on-year transaction decline for first, second, and third-tier cities was 6.9%, 21.7%, and -13.9%, respectively. Freight volume reflecting domestic demand and port cargo throughput have both increased year-on-year. In the first week after the holiday, railway freight volume and highway truck traffic related to domestic demand increased by 2.1 and 20.2 percentage points year-on-year to 3.1% and 26%, respectively. Port cargo throughput related to exports increased by 23.4 percentage points year-on-year to 25.5%, while container throughput increased by 5.8 percentage points year-on-year to 12.3%. The intensity of passenger travel remains resilient. In the second week after the holiday, the national migration scale index decreased year-on-year by 19.5 percentage points to 23.5%. The number of domestic and international flights decreased by 2.0% and 2.7% month-on-month, with year-on-year increases of 3.7% and 4.4%, respectively Movie viewing consumption has declined, and automotive retail performance is weak. In the first week after the Spring Festival, the number of moviegoers fell by 35.4 percentage points year-on-year to -59.4%, and box office revenue dropped by 34.7 percentage points year-on-year to -63%. In terms of automobile sales, retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 9.7% month-on-month and fell by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to -5.1%; wholesale volume of passenger cars decreased by 9.2% month-on-month and fell by 6.3 percentage points year-on-year to 4.9%. In terms of exports, shipping prices have generally rebounded, with significant increases on Southeast Asia routes. In the second week after the holiday, the CCFI composite index increased by 0.9% month-on-month. Among them, the freight rates on Southeast Asia routes saw a significant increase of 6.8% month-on-month, while the freight rates on the West Coast of the United States increased by 2% month-on-month. Additionally, the BDI freight rate decreased by 6.1% month-on-month. High-frequency tracking of prices: Divergence in agricultural product price trends, energy and chemical price index rises sharply The price trends of agricultural products are diverging. In the second week after the holiday, the prices of vegetables and fruits have slightly decreased, with a month-on-month change of -3.9% and -0.6%, respectively, while the price of eggs has rebounded by 1.1% month-on-month. In terms of industrial products, the energy and chemical price index has risen sharply. In the second week after the holiday, the South China industrial product price index increased by 5.0% month-on-month. Among them, the energy and chemical price index rose by 8.7%, while the metal price index remained unchanged. Risk Warning Subsequent resumption of work progresses beyond expectations. The pace of resumption of work may significantly accelerate or slow down in the next two weeks. Changes in external circumstances. Changes in external circumstances such as geopolitical issues may cause greater disturbances to economic indicators The implementation speed of policies is slower than expected. The impact of previous policies such as trade-in for new and equipment upgrades on domestic demand is differentiated