The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has entered its tenth day, with the number of transiting vessels still far below normal levels, putting continued pressure on the energy market. The latest tracking data from Morgan Stanley shows no substantial signs of easing in the situation.
According to the daily tracking report released by Morgan Stanley on March 10, only about 3 oil and refined oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz from the Persian Gulf that day, with zero LNG and LPG vessels transiting, while the normal level is about 35 vessels. Meanwhile, Trump announced on Monday evening the possibility of lifting sanctions on &#34;certain countries,&#34; adding new variables to the situation.
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The disruption in the strait has begun to trigger supply response measures in the region. Aramco stated that east-west pipeline flows will reach maximum capacity &#34;within a few days,&#34; and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has reportedly begun to shut down its refinery in Ruwais, which has a daily capacity of 817,000 barrels, following a drone attack.
On the demand side, India announced a reduction in gas supply to non-priority sectors and requested refineries to prioritize LPG supply; Pakistan has ordered the closure of government offices and schools to conserve energy.
<h2>The volume of tankers transiting remains extremely low</h2>
Morgan Stanley's data shows that the actual volume of tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz that day was less than one-tenth of the normal level. Notably, some vessels have turned off their AIS automatic identification system signals, which means the actual transit numbers may be underestimated, but Morgan Stanley analysts believe that any substantial recovery in flow should still be reflected in the tracking data.
From the loading data, since the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the new crude oil loading volume destined for major importing countries has significantly shrunk. However, the daily loading volume at Yanbu Port has rebounded to about 2 to 2.5 million barrels, and Fujairah's export volume has also begun to show a noticeable increase, indicating that the diversion effect of alternative pipelines and export routes is gradually becoming apparent.
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<h2>Freight rates have slightly retreated but remain at historically high levels</h2>
After remaining high, tanker freight rates have shown a marginal decline, but the overall level is still close to historical peaks. Specifically, the freight rate for the TD22 route (from the U.S. to China) has slightly decreased from $92 per ton on Monday to $89 per ton that day.
Morgan Stanley pointed out that the high volatility in freight rates reflects significant uncertainty in the market regarding when the strait will fully reopen. For refiners and traders reliant on Persian Gulf crude oil supplies, the pressure on procurement costs is unlikely to ease significantly in the short term
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<h2>Natural gas prices plummet significantly, refined oil crack spreads retreat from high levels</h2>
Energy price trends have shown divergence. The European natural gas benchmark TTF front-month contract closed down 17% on the day, at €47 per megawatt-hour, with the TTF forward curve overall shifting downward again, indicating a market correction in mid-term gas price expectations.
Meanwhile, the refined oil crack spread narrowed during the day's trading but remained at relatively high levels. The crack spread for diesel and aviation fuel in Northwest Europe has retreated from previous peak levels, but has not shown a trend reversal, indicating that refining profits are still at a relatively generous level.
<h2>Geopolitical signals coexist with infrastructure risks</h2>
On Monday, Trump announced consideration of lifting sanctions on &#34;certain countries,&#34; which is widely interpreted as a potential diplomatic breakthrough regarding the current situation, though the relevant details and scope of application remain unclear, and the actual impact on the market is yet to be observed.
On the infrastructure front, ADNOC's large refinery in Ruwais, with a daily processing capacity of 817,000 barrels, reportedly initiated a shutdown procedure following a drone attack, which will further reduce refining capacity west of the Strait.
Saudi Aramco stated that the east-west pipeline is expected to reach maximum transportation capacity &#34;within days,&#34; which may partially offset the export gap caused by the blockage of the Strait.
Morgan Stanley indicated that, given the situation remains in a state of ongoing disruption, the firm plans to continue releasing daily tracking reports for another week to monitor vessel transits, freight trends, and key event dynamics

LNGZ

According to the daily tracking report released by Morgan Stanley on March 10, only 3 oil and refined oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz from the Persian Gulf that day, and the number of LNG and LPG vessels transiting was zero, while the normal level is about 35 vessels; there are no substantial signs of easing in the situation. Aramco stated that the east-west pipeline flow will reach its maximum in "a few days," which is expected to partially compensate for the export gap caused by the blockage of the strait

- The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has entered its tenth day, with vessel traffic remaining significantly below normal levels, causing ongoing pressure in the energy market.  
- According to Morgan Stanley, only about 3 oil tankers passed through the strait on March 10, compared to a normal flow of around 35, with political developments adding uncertainty to the situation.  
- Despite a slight decrease in freight rates, they remain near historical highs, while natural gas prices fell sharply, reflecting a mixed energy price trend amid geopolitical and infrastructure risks.

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Hormuz Strait traffic tracking day ten: only 3 oil tankers passed, LNG ships have had 0 passes for ten consecutive days