The Market Review: Hang Seng Index falls, "lobster" concept stocks retreat, CATL and Geely rebound

The situation of the US-Iran conflict continues to be tense. According to reports from CCTV, the United States and Israel have launched fierce strikes against Iran. The Hong Kong stock market today (11th) rose initially before retreating. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq fell nearly 0.1% and rose slightly by 0.005% respectively on the night of the 10th. At the time of writing, the yield on the US 2-year Treasury bond rose to 3.59%, while the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond fell to 4.161%. The US dollar index rose to 98.99. The latest Dow futures fell by 96 points or 0.2%, and Nasdaq futures fell by 12 points or 0.05%. The 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference concluded, while the closing meeting of the 14th National People's Congress will be held tomorrow afternoon (12th) at 3 PM. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 10 points or 0.25% to close at 4,133 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.8%. The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.5 trillion yuan.

The Hang Seng Index opened 152 points higher, once rising 189 points to a high of 26,149 points. In the afternoon, it fell by 140 points to a low of 25,819 points, closing down 61 points or 0.2% at 25,898 points; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 5 points or less than 0.1% to close at 8,704 points; the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 5 points or 0.1% to close at 5,054 points. The total trading volume for the day decreased by 23% to 254.481 billion yuan. The total trading volume of northbound funds was 116.028 billion yuan, while southbound funds had a net outflow of 3.448 billion yuan today (the previous trading day had a net inflow of 17.953 billion yuan).

Changfei Optical Fiber Cable (06869.HK) saw its stock price rise nearly 17% to 206.8 yuan this morning, but later faced profit-taking pressure, closing down 7.2% at 164 yuan, with a trading volume of 9.3 billion yuan. The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800.HK) fell by 0.3% to close at 26.1 yuan, with trading volume dropping to over 9.1 billion yuan. In addition, Cathay Pacific (00293.HK) reported a 9.5% increase in profit last year, with a 21.7% increase in annual dividends, and its stock price rose by 4.4% for the day.

【Hang Seng Index Declines, "Lobster" Stocks Retrace】

In the OpenClaw concept, Tencent (00700.HK) rebounded sharply by 7.3% yesterday (10th) but retraced by 0.3% today (11th) to close at 552 yuan, with a trading volume of 26.8 billion yuan. Zhipu (02513.HK) and MiniMax (00100.HK) fell by 6.1% and 6.5% respectively.

Foreign media cited sources reporting that China is restricting state-owned enterprises and government agencies from running OpenClaw AI applications on office computers to eliminate potential security risks. It is reported that government agencies and state-owned enterprises, including large banks, have recently received notifications warning them not to install OpenClaw on office equipment for security reasons. Employees have also been asked to report to superiors about the installation of related applications for security checks, which may require uninstallation. Additionally, domestic media reported that at least 15 brokerage firms have made explicit requests prohibiting the installation, deployment, and use of "Little Lobster" OpenClaw on office/business networks and information systems without permission; if use is necessary, approval must be submitted through OA and relevant information must be reported.

【1,000 Stocks Rise, CATL and Geely Surge】

The Hong Kong stock market has weakened, with the rise and fall ratio of main board stocks at 26 to 24 (compared to 36 to 16 the previous day), with 1,079 rising stocks (an increase of 2.8%) The Hang Seng Index constituents saw 45 stocks rise and 42 stocks fall today, with a rise-to-fall ratio of 50 to 47 (compared to 80 to 19 yesterday). The market recorded short selling of HKD 37.557 billion today, accounting for 21.588% of the total turnover of HKD 173.968 billion for shortable stocks.

Power and energy stocks performed well, with Huaneng (00902.HK) and Huadian (01071.HK) rising by 3.5% and 4.3%, respectively, and Datang Power (00991.HK) up 5%. Longyuan (00916.HK), Xinyi Solar (00968.HK), Goldwind (02208.HK), and GCL-Poly Energy (03800.HK) rose between 3.6% and 4.2%, while China General Nuclear Power (01816.HK) increased by 6.8%. Coal stocks Shenhua (01088.HK) and Yanzhou Coal (01171.HK) rose by 4.6% and 4.3%, respectively, and China Coal (01898.HK) was up 5.9%. China Energy Engineering (03996.HK) rose 7%, with a turnover of HKD 1.11 billion.

In the automotive sector, Nio (09866.HK) recorded quarterly profits for the first time, with its stock price rising 14.1% to HKD 43.5. Leapmotor (09863.HK), Seres (09927.HK), XPeng (09868.HK), and Chang'an Automobile (02333.HK) rose between 3.5% and 4.4%, while Geely (00175.HK) increased by 8.2% and BYD (01211.HK) rose by 1.2%. Autonomous driving stocks WeRide (00800.HK) and Hesai (02525.HK) rose by 7.1% and 5.7%, respectively, while battery stocks CATL (03750.HK) and Zhongxin Innovation (03931.HK) rose by 9% and 8.7%, with CATL being the largest gainer among blue-chip stocks.

UBS released a report stating that the current situation regarding the conflict between the U.S. and Israel is highly similar to the spike in oil and lithium prices following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. International oil prices and commodity prices are simultaneously driving up the operating costs of fuel vehicles and the manufacturing costs of electric vehicles. Compared to four years ago, there are several differences in the current situation: the increase in metal prices is more moderate than in the 2022 cycle; the competitiveness of electric vehicle products has significantly improved; and increased overseas sales help alleviate commodity cost pressures. More importantly, from the perspective of total cost of ownership (TCO), the efficiency of the electric vehicle industry has greatly improved: the price of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries has dropped to below RMB 500 per kilowatt-hour, about half of what it was at the beginning of 2022, charging speeds have doubled, and the number of public charging stations in China has exceeded 300,000, approximately three times that of gas stations, greatly improving convenience. Current fluctuations in oil prices make electric vehicles more attractive from a total cost of ownership perspective. If the market forms inflation expectations regarding the transmission of commodity costs to vehicle prices, demand may recover faster than investors expect