The International Energy Agency (IEA) plans the largest strategic reserve release in history, yet it has not been able to suppress the rise in oil prices, reflecting the market's deep concerns over the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
On Wednesday, Brent crude futures briefly returned to $92 per barrel, and as of the time of writing, it was reported at $90.86, with the increase narrowing to 3.5%. WTI crude is also up 3.5%.
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According to a previous article from Wall Street Insight, the IEA is pushing for the largest emergency oil reserve release in history, with a release scale of 400 million barrels, more than double the amount released after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. The G7 energy ministers stated in a declaration that they support &#34;taking proactive measures to address the current situation, including utilizing strategic reserves.&#34;
Analysts warn that the strategic reserve release can only provide a buffer for a few days, and the key to the situation's direction still lies in whether the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened. Marex energy market analyst Sasha Foss told CNBC, &#34;This conflict must end within this week; otherwise, oil prices will soar back above $100.&#34;
Bloomberg analyst Alex Longley believes that what truly affects the oil market is not the scale of the release, but the speed at which crude oil enters the market. He cited estimates from JP Morgan:
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The feasible speed of the joint release by various countries is currently about 1.2 million barrels per day. During the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) release in 2022, the maximum was slightly above 1 million barrels per day within a month, and at certain times, the release speed was even less than half of that level.
In contrast, if the situation escalates, the disruption of crude oil supply transported through the Strait of Hormuz could reach about 15 million barrels per day. This means that although the market discusses a release scale of 300 million to 400 million barrels, what will truly determine the impact on the oil market will still be the release pace and its execution details.
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<h2>IEA Initiates Largest Reserve Release in History, G7 Endorsement</h2>
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated in a declaration on Tuesday that member countries currently hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil reserves, along with another 600 million barrels of industry stocks under government obligation.
Birol pointed out that &#34;the conditions in the oil market have clearly deteriorated in recent days,&#34; specifically naming two major issues: blocked transportation routes and significant reductions in oil production. &#34;This is creating significant and continuously rising risks for the market,&#34; he said, &#34;We have discussed all available options, including opening the IEA emergency oil reserves to the market.&#34; Member countries are scheduled to make a decision on whether to release emergency oil stocks on Wednesday
On Wednesday, the German Minister of Economy confirmed that the IEA has requested member countries to release 400 million barrels of oil reserves, and Germany will participate, but specific details are yet to be clarified. On the same day, Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the third-largest holder of strategic oil reserves globally, stated that Japan will independently release strategic oil reserves to respond to the impacts of the Middle East war. The release is expected to start as early as next Monday, March 16.
<h2>Signals of Escalating Conflict Emerge, Strait Situation Remains Tense</h2>
Meanwhile, there are multiple signs of escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Reports indicate that U.S. forces have sunk several Iranian vessels, including 16 minesweepers, near the Strait of Hormuz. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) stated on Wednesday that three cargo ships near the Iranian coast were attacked by projectiles, with one of the hit vessels located within the Strait of Hormuz.
Dubai authorities also confirmed that two drones crashed near Dubai International Airport on Wednesday, injuring four people and temporarily closing the surrounding airspace.
Earlier on Tuesday, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on social media that the U.S. Navy had escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, which initially caused a significant drop in oil prices. However, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later clarified to the media that the U.S. Navy &#34;is currently not escorting any tankers or vessels,&#34; and oil prices subsequently recovered some of their losses.
<h2>Analysts: $100 Oil Price Risk Depends on Duration of Conflict</h2>
Analysts generally believe that the effect of releasing strategic reserves is limited, and the duration of the conflict is the core variable determining oil price trends. Marex's Foss stated bluntly that the IEA's reserve release &#34;can only buy a few days, but in reality, everything depends on whether the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened.&#34;
Paul Gooden, head of global natural resources at asset management firm Ninety One, noted in a research report on Tuesday that &#34;if tensions ease in the coming weeks, oil prices may fall... but even so, prices are unlikely to return to the $60 to $70 range seen earlier this year.&#34;
He further warned that &#34;if supply disruptions last longer, the consequences will be more severe—oil prices could soar further, potentially breaking through $120 or even higher, until high prices begin to suppress demand.&#34;

Analysis warning: What truly affects the oil market is not the scale of release, but the speed at which crude oil enters the market. The release of strategic reserves can only provide a buffer of a few days; the key to the situation still lies in whether the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened

- The International Energy Agency (IEA) plans to release a historic 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to counter rising oil prices driven by concerns over tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.  
- Brent crude oil prices reached $92 per barrel before stabilizing at $90.86, while analysts warn that the release can only offer short-term relief, with potential supply disruptions from the Strait posing a greater risk.  
- As geopolitical tensions escalate, experts suggest that the ongoing conflict's duration significantly influences oil price trends, with possible increases if supply remains interrupted.

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Ignoring the IEA's largest-ever release plan, oil prices return to $92. What signal is the market conveying?