Every reporter: Wang Haimin Every editor: Ye Feng
Recently, as fields that are not easily replaced by AI increasingly become a safe haven for global capital, the revaluation of &#34;HALO&#34; (there are views that in the AI era, capital will favor those physical enterprises with heavy assets and low technological substitution risks) assets is truly unfolding in the market.
At the same time, some institutions have recently continued to recommend investment opportunities in physical assets such as non-ferrous metals, crude oil, and chemicals, believing that the &#34;HALO&#34; narrative is expected to become the main line of the A-share market, especially represented by the strategy team of Guojin Securities, whose view of &#34;physical assets as an ark&#34; has garnered significant attention in the industry.
However, the latest research report released by CITIC Securities presents a different perspective. This report, titled &#34;Overseas Market Spotlight - Will HALO Be a Sustained Main Line?&#34; discusses the sustainability of the HALO concept, with the core view suggesting that HALO is essentially a one-time survival premium revaluation of low substitution risk assets, making it difficult to constitute a long-term main line, and more a reflection of phase-style rotation. Random interviews with reporters found that there are quite a few institutions that agree with CITIC Securities' viewpoint.
&#34;HALO Main Line Theory&#34; Sparks Controversy
Since the beginning of 2026, a cyclical whirlwind has swept through the A-share market. In particular, the recent &#34;US-Iran situation&#34; has ignited investment enthusiasm in the energy and chemical sectors, with topics like &#34;HALO as the main line&#34; and &#34;physical assets as an ark&#34; gaining significant attention.
According to statistics from Choice data, as of the close on March 11, the top five performing Shenwan first-level industries (excluding comprehensive) this year are petroleum and petrochemicals (+24.4%), coal (+22.6%), basic chemicals (+19.4%), non-ferrous metals (+18.1%), and building materials (+17.4%).
In contrast, technology growth-related sectors such as electronics (+7.8%), telecommunications (+8.8%), and computers (+5.3%) have accumulated gains of less than 10% since the beginning of the year, significantly underperforming &#34;HALO&#34; assets.
Meanwhile, the &#34;HALO&#34; effect has also manifested in the US stock market. Entering 2026, prior to the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, the US stock market saw a phase of strength in AI infrastructure, energy power, semiconductor equipment, and related physical assets, while some software assets with higher AI substitution risks faced pressure; in addition, a broader category of &#34;heavy assets + low elimination&#34; assets began to attract capital attention, known as &#34;HALO.&#34;
Furthermore, according to Huibo Intelligent Terminal, recently, major brokerage research reports have focused on the &#34;HALO&#34; theme. For example, on March 8, Guotou Securities pointed out in &#34;HALO Trading: The Echo Is Not Over, Rhythm Is Paramount&#34; that &#34;HALO trading has not yet entered the extreme euphoric 'tail' stage, and the current non-crowded chip structure still leaves room for subsequent development.&#34;
However, in recent days, with the intensification of oil price fluctuations, doubts regarding the so-called &#34;HALO main line theory&#34; have begun to emerge, with some leading institutions also voicing their opinions
CITIC Securities' latest research report &#34;Overseas Market Spotlight - Will HALO Be a Continuing Main Line?&#34; questions the current market's &#34;HALO craze.&#34; The core viewpoint of the report is that the market's narrative around AI has shifted from &#34;AI Bubble&#34; to &#34;AI Disruption&#34; and &#34;HALO,&#34; marking a transition from &#34;systemic bubble pricing&#34; to &#34;structural differentiated pricing.&#34; The market is beginning to reassess who can benefit from resource bottlenecks, who will face substitution impacts, and who has survival certainty. The market has moved from a highly concentrated state to a phase of differentiation among Winners, Survivors, and Losers, a structural change reflected both within the U.S. stock market and among country assets. The report believes that HALO is essentially a one-time survival premium reassessment of low substitution risk assets, categorized as Survivors. HALO is not equivalent to structural winners, and a defensive allocation based solely on survival certainty is unlikely to form a long-term main line; it is more a reflection of phase-style rotation.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OxjvZlevI0Dj8cpBX2f6t0_UDlSAx6upE_xJeptA5LosoAA/641?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OxjvZlevI0Dj8cpBX2f6t0_UDlSAx6upE_xJeptA5LosoAA/641"/>
Screenshot from: CITIC Securities Research Report
The report further points out that &#34;assets with genuine potential for sustained excess returns should be located at key nodes along the AI expansion path, deeply bound to resource bottlenecks or technological upgrade directions, and possess characteristics of profit elasticity. Therefore, HALO trading is more a reflection of phase-style rotation rather than a new long-term growth paradigm. When there is no clear new direction for AI, HALO is worth paying attention to, but once the direction of AI expansion is clear, funds will re-embrace high growth.&#34;
Today, a random interview with reporters found that many institutions agree with CITIC Securities' viewpoint. A senior strategy analyst from a leading brokerage told reporters, &#34;We are also not promoting the HALO theme and continue to be optimistic about the technology sector focused on AI and high-end manufacturing.&#34;
In the view of a chief strategist from a large brokerage, &#34;This ultimately boils down to an offensive and defensive mindset; those advocating offense disagree with HALO, while those advocating defense agree.&#34;
A macro chief from another brokerage pointed out, &#34;Concepts like HALO are all a phase summary; the market is currently a bit chaotic, and hotspots are rotating quite quickly.&#34;
Institutions: &#34;HALO&#34; Is Not a Temporary Rotation
Even with differences, it is undeniable that in the A-share market, investments in physical assets such as non-ferrous metals, energy, and chemicals have indeed moved from the periphery to the center. Some institutions believe that the HALO narrative is likely to become the main line of the A-share market, particularly represented by the strategy team at Guojin Securities, whose view of &#34;physical assets as an ark&#34; has garnered significant attention in the industry.
As early as the end of February 2024, during the annual strategy meeting of Minsheng Securities, then chief strategist Mou Yiling emphasized investment opportunities in physical assets such as non-ferrous metals, crude oil, and coal in his keynote speech
At that time, such &#34;niche viewpoints&#34; seemed somewhat out of place with the investment boom in tech stocks driven by the AI wave.
After switching to Guojin Securities in 2025 and serving as Chief Strategist, Mu Yiling continued to promote physical assets, and the related investment logic gradually gained market validation. Last year, the Shenwan Nonferrous Metals Index rose by 95%, making it the biggest dark horse in the A-share market that year; recently, influenced by the situation in the Middle East, the energy sector has performed outstandingly.
Recently, Mu Yiling has released research reports such as &#34;Physical Assets and Chinese Assets,&#34; &#34;China is HALO, Physical is Ark,&#34; and &#34;No Bear Market for Physical Assets,&#34; which have garnered significant attention. While continuously recommending physical assets like nonferrous metals, crude oil, chemicals, and machinery, the related research reports also highlighted the &#34;HALO attribute&#34; of A-shares.
In &#34;China is HALO, Physical is Ark,&#34; it is pointed out that &#34;compared to U.S. stocks, A-share revenue distribution is concentrated in industries such as mining and manufacturing, which are not easily replaced by AI; from an industry-neutral perspective, A-share listed companies in most industries often have a higher proportion of tangible assets to total assets compared to their U.S. counterparts. Chinese companies are relatively stronger in resisting the potential impacts of AI disruption.&#34; &#34;No Bear Market for Physical Assets&#34; states that &#34;the world is currently facing technological challenges to industrial order and regional conflicts challenging globalization; physical assets, which were forgotten during prosperous periods of order, will have systemic importance. At the same time, Chinese assets possess the strongest physical attributes globally, and their revaluation in times of turmoil deserves attention.&#34;
Recently, in an interview with the media, Mu Yiling reiterated the investment opportunities in physical assets, emphasizing that commodities are the core direction for the entire year. Since 2025, nonferrous metals have already shown performance, and whether precious metals or industrial metals, they will still be the protagonists in 2026. The energy sector will also emerge from low levels, such as oil transportation, as energy demand is expanding. However, there will be a rotation rhythm among different varieties and industries.
It is worth mentioning that, looking at the global market, the recent impact of the &#34;U.S.-Iran conflict&#34; on A-shares has been relatively limited. According to Choice data, from March 2 to 10, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.95%, ranking 9th among 43 major global indices, significantly outperforming major European and Japanese/Korean stock indices.
Today, regarding the views in the aforementioned CITIC Securities research report, the reporter inquired directly with Mu Yiling, but he did not respond directly.
As for the current market divergence surrounding the HALO theme, Shu Qiquan, General Manager of Shanghai Qianbo Asset Management, told reporters, &#34;CITIC Securities' mention of short-term rotation is a reminder not to chase themes; Guojin Securities' mention of physical ark is about grasping the underlying logic. I lean more towards HALO being a mid-term style rebalancing, not a temporary rotation, but it will only follow a structural market. The focus should be on heavy assets such as resources, energy, power infrastructure, and high-barrier public utilities; those with supply constraints, cash flow, and dividends are the core of this HALO market.&#34;
Additionally, some industry insiders believe that in stock market investment strategies, analysts usually have their own opinions, and divergences are a normal phenomenon. Ultimately, which side is right or wrong still requires longer market validation. Looking back at recent market trends, both the AI theme and HALO assets have had opportunities, but the bullish trend of HALO assets may exceed expectations
Daily Economic News

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Recently, as fields that are not easily replaced by AI become a safe haven for capital, the revaluation of "HALO" assets is unfolding in the market. Some institutions recommend physical assets such as non-ferrous metals and crude oil, believing that the "HALO" narrative will become the main theme of A-shares. However, a research report from CITIC Securities argues that "HALO" is merely a one-time survival premium revaluation and is unlikely to form a long-term main theme, but rather reflects a phase of style rotation. This viewpoint has sparked controversy within the industry

Style rotation or long-term main line? "Physical is Ark" shows divergence, CITIC Securities analysts call out: "HALO" is just a temporary theme