On the evening of March 11, Beijing time, the U.S. February CPI data was released, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.8% for February CPI and a year-on-year increase of 3.11% for core CPI, slightly lower than market expectations. The Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting will officially be held on March 17.
Industry insiders pointed out that the market focus is no longer on this somewhat &#34;outdated&#34; data. Due to the closure of key shipping routes, international crude oil prices have surged in panic, and the market remains concerned that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in the U.S. for March and April may rise due to the transmission of oil prices, with the dollar maintaining a relatively strong fluctuation recently.
There are also views that, as countries release oil reserves for buffering and multiple parties seek a &#34;ceasefire,&#34; the overall impact on oil prices is expected to be controllable. The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve may have a short-term adjustment, but the overall trend remains unchanged. The Federal Reserve is highly likely to remain on hold during the March meeting, with the baseline scenario still being to start cutting rates around June, with two rate cuts expected within the year.
The Federal Reserve's rate cut path also indirectly affects emerging market countries, including Hong Kong and A-shares, especially for the Hong Kong stock market, which has a high proportion of foreign investment and is more sensitive to U.S. dollar liquidity. After the disappointing non-farm data and the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut receding, the Hong Kong stock technology sector experienced a significant drop but has recently shown signs of stabilization, possibly pricing in the pessimistic expectations more fully.
Investors can closely monitor the low-level repair opportunities in the growth sector of the Hong Kong stock market after the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut rises. Related ETFs include the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180.SH), the Hong Kong Stock Connect Tech ETF Fund (159101.SZ), and the Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892.SZ).
Daily Economic News

.SPX

In February, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.8% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 3.11%, slightly below expectations. Market attention is shifting to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where it is expected to maintain interest rates. International oil prices have risen due to the closure of key shipping routes, which may affect future CPI growth rates. Although expectations for interest rate cuts have been adjusted in the short term, the overall trend remains unchanged, with cuts expected to begin in June. Investors should pay attention to the recovery opportunities in the Hong Kong stock technology sector

- On March 11, the U.S. February CPI data was released, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, slightly below market expectations.  
- Concerns over rising international oil prices due to key route closures may impact March and April CPI figures, with expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining current rates in March but potentially lowering rates twice later in the year.  
- The Fed's decisions could influence emerging markets, particularly Hong Kong's stock market, which has shown signs of stabilization despite recent declines in tech sectors.

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U.S. February inflation shows moderate performance, and the Federal Reserve may hold steady in the March interest rate meeting